BELEXsentiment for May at 106.7 points, stuck in stagnation zone

The Belgrade Stock Exchange BELEXsentiment market sentiment index for May 2026 stands at 106.7 points, according to the exchange’s regular monthly release on 27 May. The reading keeps the index in the stagnation zone and signals heightened investor caution.

Index methodology:

• 90 to 110 points: stagnation zone
• Above 110: rising expectations
• Below 90: falling expectations

In April the index stood at 104.8 points. May produced a moderate rise of 1.9 points.

April turnover, bonds dominate

BELEX15 rose 0.13 percent in April. BELEXline fell 0.40 percent. Total April turnover came to €11.9 million (around 1.398 billion RSD).

Turnover split:

• Bonds: €10.9 million (92 percent)
• Equities: around €1 million (8 percent)

Bond dominance has been the Belgrade Stock Exchange pattern for the past four years. It points to a persistent liquidity shortfall in the equity segment.

Trading on 27 May, indices in positive territory

At the latest session on 27 May the Belgrade Stock Exchange recorded turnover of 25.14 million RSD (around €213,900). BELEX15 climbed 0.26 percent, while BELEXline closed flat.

Most actively traded stocks on the day:

• Dunav osiguranje (DNOS): up 1.37 percent, closing at 1,926 RSD
• Gosa FOM: down 5.88 percent, closing at 1,600 RSD

Securities Commission Chairman Marko Jankovic told the daily Politika on 26 May that the stagnation reflects two June catalysts.

Stagnation in equity turnover and investor sentiment reflects expectations around the outcome of two key June events: the NIS negotiations by 6 June and a possible NBS policy rate move at the 12 June meeting.

Jankovic offered a quantitative projection.

June expectations could move BELEX15 by 0.5 to 1.5 percent depending on the direction of regulatory decisions.

Sector analysis, energy dominates

Within BELEX15, the largest weight is held by energy at 41.2 percent, dominated by NIS with a 28 percent index weight.

BELEX15 sector composition:

• Energy: 41.2 percent (NIS 28 percent)
• Financials: 22.8 percent
• Telecoms: 14.1 percent
• Insurance: 8.7 percent
• Other: 13.2 percent

This concentration represents a structural vulnerability of the domestic market to sanctions shocks. It became clear in early 2025, when the Belgrade Stock Exchange suspended trading in NIS shares (NIIS) after the announced US sanctions, so the stock has had no daily price since.

Belgrade Stock Exchange Chief Executive Sinisa Krneta flagged upcoming IPOs in a 22 May interview with eKapija.

Up to three new equity IPOs are expected on the primary market in the second half of 2026, with a combined target volume in the €18 to €30 million range, which would broaden market depth and sector diversity.

Among the listing candidates, according to Krneta, are a domestic electronics manufacturer and an IT sector company.

What to expect in the second half of 2026

The open question is whether BELEXsentiment can clear the 110-point threshold before the end of July. A move into expansion territory would mark the first such crossing since October 2024.

Coverage of upcoming regulatory decisions and their impact on the Belgrade Stock Exchange will follow.