NIS: eight days to the OFAC deadline on 6 June, three scenarios

Petroleum Industry of Serbia enters the final eight days before the deadline set by the Office of Foreign Assets Control at the United States Treasury for filing formal documentation on a change of ownership.

The deadline expires on 6 June 2026, following a second extension OFAC granted on 23 May. Market readings out of Washington suggest a third extension is unlikely without firm details on the structure of the transaction.

Three scenarios before the Serbian government

The Serbian Government Expert Team is scheduled to meet on 2 June. The agenda covers three scenarios that the Mining and Energy Minister, Dubravka Djedovic Handanovic, set out in remarks to Politika on 27 May.

Overview of the three scenarios:

• Scenario A, extension: a request to OFAC for an additional 30-day extension accompanied by a memorandum on the MOL and Gazprom Neft negotiations
• Scenario B, sale to MOL: finalising the sale of the 56.15% stake to Hungary’s MOL at a price in the €480 to €540 million range
• Scenario C, third party: activating the option with an undisclosed third buyer reported by Radio Free Europe on 22 May to be in the final stages of negotiations

After a working meeting in Budapest on 27 May, Djedovic said scenario B was the most likely outcome, without giving a quantitative estimate.

Pancevo refinery reserves

The strategic capacity of the Pancevo refinery is part of the operational equation. The NIS chief executive, Kirill Tyurdenev, quantified the reserves in remarks to Novi Sad daily Dnevnik on 28 May.

Refinery capacity indicators:

• Annual processing capacity: 4.8 million tonnes of crude
• Current strategic reserves: 320,000 to 440,000 tonnes
• Coverage in standard operating conditions: four to six weeks
• Operating licence: expires 16 June 2026
• NIS petrol stations in Serbia: 414

Tyurdenev gave a quantitative projection.

The company holds strategic crude reserves of 320,000 to 440,000 tonnes, which covers the refinery’s needs for four to six weeks under standard operating conditions.

Contingency fuel supply plan

Activating scenarios A and C would involve potentially drawing on the contingency fuel supply plan from neighbouring markets. The Ministry of Mining and Energy confirmed four import routes on 26 May.

Contingency supply routes:

• Hungary’s MOL via the Adriatic Pipeline: up to 60,000 tonnes per month
• Bulgaria’s Lukoil Nefthim via Nis: up to 35,000 tonnes per month
• Greece’s HELPE Elefsis via Bar: up to 25,000 tonnes per month
• Italy’s Eni Livorno via Bar: up to 20,000 tonnes per month

The total contingency capacity is 140,000 tonnes per month, which covers about 35% of Serbia’s monthly consumption. The shortfall would need to be covered by imports through other channels or by drawing on commercial reserves.

Market impact on fuel prices

The chief economist of the Centre for High Economic Studies, Mahmut Busatlija, quantified the market impact of a refinery shutdown scenario in analysis for eKapija on 28 May.

A four-week shutdown of the Pancevo refinery would push retail fuel prices up by 12 to 18 dinars per litre, with a cumulative impact on inflation of 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points in the quarterly projection.

Busatlija also gave a fiscal projection.

A one-month production stoppage would cut NIS contributions to the Serbian budget from excise duty and corporate profit tax by around 10.8 billion RSD, or 92 million euros.

Is a pre-deadline ownership transfer realistic

It is an open question whether a formal sale and purchase agreement between Gazprom Neft and MOL could be signed by 6 June. The deal would require a Gazprom Neft shareholder decision and clearance from the Hungarian competition authority.

Follow the Serbian government Expert Team’s agenda and OFAC announcements for the next update.