NIS Loses OFAC License Tuesday: Sanctions Scenario

The operating license issued by the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC), which allows Naftna Industrija Srbije to operate despite sanctions, expires on June 16, 2026, that is, on Tuesday. As of this writing, there was no confirmation that a new special license permitting NIS to keep operating beyond that date had been granted.

NIS has formally applied for a new special license. Until such approval arrives, the company enters a period in which the full set of US sanctions applies to it. This is not an administrative formality: without a license, it becomes risky or impossible for foreign partners, banks and suppliers to carry out transactions and deliveries with NIS.

The most direct consequence appears at the gate of the Pancevo refinery. The plant processes crude oil arriving via the Adriatic pipeline (JANAF), and without a valid license that crude flow is cut off. A refinery without feedstock cannot run at full capacity, raising the prospect of a halt in production of gasoline, diesel and other refined products for the domestic market.

What exactly happens on Tuesday?

If the license is not extended on June 16, the scenario unfolds step by step. First, the National Bank of Serbia has signaled it would suspend payment processing with NIS, meaning domestic banks would stop processing payments to and from the company. Second, the supply of crude to the refinery via JANAF is interrupted. Third, NIS would operate on stockpiles while imports of finished products from the region increase to cover demand.

The market is already bracing for that outcome. Supply increasingly relies on domestic fuel reserves and on imports from neighboring countries, which preserves stability at the pumps in the short term. This is a bridge, not a permanent fix: reserves and regional imports can absorb the shock for a while, but they do not replace continuous refinery operation.

How far does the state’s preparation go?

Alongside the operational measures, a budget revision is being prepared in case the state takes over NIS. Such a move would change the company’s ownership structure and would be an attempt to remove the basis for sanctions, since they target the Russian ownership stake. This is an option held in reserve, not a decision already made.

For consumers, the key question is continuity of supply and prices at the pumps in the days after the license lapses. Reserves and regional imports provide room to maneuver, but every day without a new license adds pressure to that system. The real test will be the first working days after Tuesday: whether the refinery keeps running, whether payments stay functional and how quickly an answer from OFAC arrives.

Do you think the new license will arrive in time, or is Serbia facing a shutdown of the Pancevo refinery?