NIS Two Days From Deadline as OFAC Stays Silent
NIS's last operating OFAC license expires on July 1, and Washington has yet to answer the company's new request. Crude processing and steady fuel supply now hang in the balance.
- The last special OFAC license under which NIS operates is valid through July 1, leaving just two days.
- The company filed a new request for a special license to operate past July 1; the US response has not arrived.
- Without an extension, crude oil processing and the normal operation of the Pancevo refinery are in question.
- Fuel reserve estimates range from two to three months to six to eight months.
The last special license from the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) that still allows Naftna Industrija Srbije to operate is valid through July 1, 2026. Two days remain before it lapses, and Washington has yet to answer the company’s new request to keep running.
NIS has filed a fresh request for a special license to cover operations after July 1. It is the same mechanism of temporary exemptions that has kept the company functioning since October, but this time the decision is running right up to the edge of the deadline. Without the regulator’s written approval, the exemption does not roll over automatically, which means that from July 2 the company would formally lose the legal basis for a range of operations tied to sourcing and refining crude.
The sanctions are not a new factor. They have been in force since October 9 last year and were imposed over the company’s Russian majority ownership, held by Gazpromneft. Since then NIS has run on temporary licenses, processing crude stocks imported through the Adriatic oil pipeline (JANAF). Those stocks are being drawn down, and it is precisely as they near the bottom that the question of how long the Pancevo refinery can run at full capacity becomes pressing.
What happens if the license is not renewed?
If a new license fails to arrive, crude processing and the company’s normal operation are called into question. The Pancevo refinery is currently working through its last crude stocks, so every day without regulatory cover narrows the room to maneuver. The consequence is not an instant shortage at the pumps, but a rising risk to the continuity of fuel supply on the market.
Estimates of reserves differ, and part of the uncertainty lives there. Some point to stocks sufficient for two to three months, others to six to eight months. The gap is not academic: it determines how much time the company and the state have to find a solution before the pressure reaches the end consumer. A wide spread in estimates usually signals that even the actors involved lack a shared picture of the situation, which makes planning harder still.
Where does MOL fit, and why the deal is not closed
Alongside the countdown, a second track is in motion. Mining and Energy Minister Dubravka Djedovic Handanovic signed a shareholders’ agreement with Hungary’s MOL Group on June 16. That agreement, however, does not change the picture overnight: it takes effect only if MOL and Gazpromneft reach a deal on the ownership transaction and OFAC approves it.
In other words, the exit from sanctioned status runs through a change in the ownership structure that would remove Russian majority control as the basis for the restrictions. Until that deal is closed, NIS remains tied to temporary licenses, and each one is only a postponement rather than a resolution. A signed shareholders’ agreement is a step, but without Gazpromneft’s consent and OFAC’s green light it stays a letter on paper.
The next development that shifts the math is OFAC’s decision on the new request. Until then, the company is running on its last stocks and on a temporary legal basis that expires in two days. Do you think Washington will extend the license before the deadline, or will NIS reach July 1 without regulatory cover?
