Pancevo Refinery at Full Capacity as MOL, ADNOC Eye NIS
Serbia insists the Pancevo refinery keep running at full capacity as NIS ownership shifts: MOL is buying Gazprom Neft's stake, with UAE's ADNOC also in talks to join.
- Serbia's government insists the Pancevo refinery keep operating at full capacity as part of the NIS talks.
- MOL signed a framework deal with Gazprom Neft on January 19, 2026 to buy a 56.15% stake in NIS.
- MOL is also negotiating with UAE's ADNOC to enter the ownership structure while keeping the controlling stake.
- Gazprom Neft currently holds 44.85%, the Serbian state 29.87%, and the firm Intelligence 11.3%.
Serbia’s government has set a clear condition in the talks over the future of Naftna Industrija Srbije: the Pancevo refinery must keep running at full capacity, with at least the same average annual output it recorded in the four years before U.S. sanctions took effect. The plant has been the backbone of domestic oil processing for decades, and any shutdown would immediately raise the question of fuel supply for the entire national market.
The answer is being sought through a change in ownership. On January 19, 2026, MOL Group signed a framework agreement with Gazprom Neft to buy a 56.15% stake in NIS, which would move the Russian-held portion into the hands of the Hungarian company. Gazprom Neft currently holds the largest single stake at 44.85%, the Serbian state holds 29.87%, and the firm Intelligence holds 11.3%. MOL becoming the majority owner is the precondition for lifting the sanctions, but only with approval from the U.S. administration.
Why is ownership the key to lifting sanctions?
NIS is under sanctions from the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) because of its Russian ownership, and any resolution hinges on the controlling stake passing to an owner that is not itself restricted. MOL, a Hungarian company with substantial regional experience, plays the role of the party that can unlock the license. Without U.S. sign-off the transaction cannot close, which makes the political dimension of the deal as important as the commercial one.
In parallel, MOL is also negotiating with the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, ADNOC, over the entry of Emirati capital into the NIS ownership structure. According to MOL sources, the arrangement would be structured as a joint venture in which ADNOC would come in as a minority partner while MOL retains the controlling stake. For Serbia, the entry of two foreign investors would bring additional diversification of ownership and a move away from the Russian influence that triggered the sanctions in the first place.
What if JANAF halts deliveries?
Crude oil for the Pancevo refinery mostly arrives via the Adriatic pipeline, through the Croatian port of Omisalj operated by JANAF. In recent months that route has been the only reliable corridor for delivering feedstock, so any interruption directly threatens the continuity of processing. Alternatives exist, but they are more expensive and logistically demanding, which further explains why the government is insisting specifically on a full-capacity guarantee in any future ownership scenario.
For now, all the decisive levers of the deal, the American license, the price of the stake and ADNOC’s role, remain subject to negotiation whose outcome determines whether the country’s only refinery will run without interruption. Will a change of owner truly guarantee a stable fuel supply, or is the market facing a period of uncertainty until the deal is closed?
