Ten Days Until NIS License Expires: What Awaits Serbia
The OFAC waiver for NIS runs out on July 31, leaving about ten days. MOL is negotiating for a majority, ADNOK for a minority, and small shareholders wait without a share price.
- OFAC extended the NIS operating license to July 31, 2026, leaving about ten days of work under the current waiver.
- Gazprom Neft and Gazprom hold the majority with 56.15%, Serbia holds 29.87%, and the rest belongs to small shareholders.
- MOL is negotiating a majority takeover, while ADNOK of the UAE weighs entry as a minority owner.
- Under the MOL deal, the Pancevo refinery would keep running for at least 10 more years at pre-sanctions capacity.
The operating license that the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) extended on June 30 runs until July 31, 2026, which means NIS has about ten days left to operate under that waiver. It is the latest in a series of short extensions that have kept the system running month to month since the start of the year, with no lasting fix in sight.
The company did not wait for the deadline. On June 26, NIS applied for a new special license, arguing that it is essential to supplying the domestic market and to Serbia’s energy stability. OFAC has yet to respond, and its answer will decide whether the Pancevo refinery, the system’s main production hub, keeps operating without interruption.
What really threatens the pumps and the refinery?
The Pancevo refinery produces Euro-5 fuels, aviation fuel, liquefied petroleum gas and feedstock for petrochemicals. It is the single processing gateway through which the domestic market receives most of its home-produced fuel. If the license lapses without a replacement, the vulnerable point is not the immediate sale at the pumps but the crude supply chain and the risk that banks and suppliers, fearing secondary sanctions, suspend cooperation.
That is why the legal framework matters more than the fuel in the tanks. The ownership structure is the core of the problem: Gazprom Neft and Russia’s Gazprom hold 56.15% of the shares, the Serbian state holds 29.87%, and the remainder belongs to small shareholders. As long as Russian capital holds the majority, the U.S. administration treats NIS as a sanctioned entity, so every extension is only a postponement, not an exit.
The solution now taking shape has a name: a change in ownership. Under the deal with Hungary’s MOL Group, Serbia would acquire an additional five percent of shares, and the Pancevo refinery would keep running for at least ten more years at the capacity it had before sanctions. MOL is negotiating for the majority package, while ADNOK of the United Arab Emirates is being mentioned as a possible minority shareholder.
Where do small shareholders stand?
Small shareholders are in the weakest position because they have neither a voice in the talks nor a price that would tell them what their stake is currently worth. Trading in the NIS share is suspended, so there is no market price to reflect the risk of the license lapsing or the premium of an eventual takeover. In practice, holders of small packages are waiting on the outcome of negotiations between the big players, and their return depends on the terms under which MOL and the state agree on a change of control.
If the MOL arrangement goes through and Russian ownership drops below the threshold that worries Washington, the door opens to a permanent license and a return of the share to trading. If the talks stall, the next step is another short extension or the first serious halt in refinery operations since sanctions began. Ten days is not much for a decision that determines who controls the country’s key energy system.
Do you believe a new license will arrive before the deadline, or is another last-minute extension waiting for us?
