NIS Six Days From OFAC License Expiry, Vucic Signals Deal
The OFAC license letting NIS operate despite sanctions expires on July 31, with the president saying Serbia is close to a final solution while state reserves keep fuel flowing.
- The OFAC license allowing NIS to operate expires in six days, with the deadline set for July 31, 2026.
- Russia's Gazprom group holds 56.15 percent of NIS, while the Republic of Serbia holds about 29.87 percent.
- Around 20,000 tons of fuel have been released from operational reserves, keeping supply stable.
- The government extended the reduced fuel excise duty through August 2.
Six days remain before the license granted to Naftna Industrija Srbije by the US Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) runs out: the permit that lets the company operate despite sanctions on its Russian majority owner expires on July 31, 2026. President Aleksandar Vucic has said Serbia is close to a final solution and that he awaits the end of the talks with optimism.
The deadline has moved before. OFAC has extended the operating license several times since the United States sanctioned the Russian energy sector in January, and NIS is the only Russian-owned asset directly affected on Serbian territory. The Pancevo refinery, the country’s only crude oil refinery, sits at the center of the issue because domestic processing depends on it.
Who owns NIS and why the license matters
The ownership structure is the source of the problem. Gazprom group, through Gazprom Neft and Gazprom, holds a majority stake of 56.15 percent, while the Republic of Serbia holds about 29.87 percent. It is the Russian stake that triggers the US sanctions, which makes the license the only instrument allowing foreign and domestic partners, banks and suppliers to keep working with the company without the risk of secondary sanctions.
The solution Vucic refers to means changing that structure. Hungary’s MOL, which currently holds no stake in NIS, is named as one of the parties in talks over acquiring the Russian package, with Russia and Serbia also at the table. Without an exit or dilution of the Russian stake, extending the license remains the only alternative to continued operations, and each new extension depends on a political decision in Washington.
For NIS this is not abstract diplomacy. The company is one of Serbia’s largest taxpayers and the backbone of the retail fuel network. Losing the license without a replacement arrangement would hit crude oil supply, payments to foreign partners and access to banking services, a combination that moves quickly from the company level to the market level.
Can reserves cover the gap?
For now the government has answered with stockpiles. Around 20,000 tons of fuel have been released from operational reserves to domestic companies to bridge any supply disruptions and prevent shortages at the pumps. The reduced fuel excise duty has also been extended through August 2, holding pump prices in check during the weeks when the license’s fate is being decided.
Reserves, however, are a buffer, not a permanent fix. They can cover a short-term interruption in deliveries, but they do not replace the refinery’s output or the crude oil imports that NIS secures. If no deal or new extension is reached by July 31, the question stops being how much fuel is in storage and becomes how long that buffer lasts.
Next week, then, is the deadline against which a concrete outcome will be measured, not another announcement. Will a final solution arrive before the deadline, or will OFAC extend the license again and push the decision into the autumn?
