Serbia's July Inflation Slows to 1.9%, Vegetables Down 15.1%

Serbia’s annual inflation slowed to 1.9 percent in July, and most of that slowdown came straight from the market stalls: fresh vegetable prices fell 15.1 percent in a single month, while fresh fruit dropped 6.7 percent. The consumer price data was released on August 12 by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (SORS).

Prices of consumer goods and services fell 0.2 percent on average in July compared with June. That is an actual monthly decline, not merely slower growth. Measured against December 2025, consumer prices are still up 2.5 percent.

The National Bank of Serbia (NBS) says the slowdown was driven mainly by lower fruit and vegetable prices, the result of an unusually strong new harvest. Processed food moved in the opposite direction, rising 0.4 percent for the month, pushed up by higher prices for wheat products and soft drinks.

Food Pulls the Index Down, Recreation Pushes It Up

Looking at the main categories of goods and services, monthly prices fell in three of them:

• food and non-alcoholic beverages, 2.0 percent
• clothing and footwear, 0.7 percent
• education, 0.6 percent

Prices rose in every other category. Recreation, sport and culture climbed the most, up 6.2 percent for the month, followed by alcoholic beverages and tobacco at 1.3 percent, health at 0.8 percent and transport at 0.5 percent. Furniture and household equipment rose 0.3 percent, as did restaurants and hotels. Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels each cost 0.2 percent more, along with communications and personal care services.

Why Is Core Inflation 4.5 Percent While the Headline Rate Is 1.9?

Core inflation, which excludes food, energy, alcohol and cigarettes, stood at 4.5 percent year on year in July and held its steady course. The headline rate is more than twice as low because the broader index, which does include food, was pulled down by exactly that part of the shopping basket.

The scale of the drop shows up clearly in the year on year comparison: unprocessed food prices are down 12.9 percent from July last year, and processed food is down 2.5 percent. Together, the two food subcategories are cheaper by an average of 6.1 percent.

On a monthly basis, core inflation rose 0.6 percent, driven mainly by the seasonal jump in package tour prices. The rest of that part of the basket had a neutral effect: household chemical products got more expensive, while footwear and clothing fell in price for seasonal reasons.

Energy Moves in the Opposite Direction

Energy prices rose 0.3 percent in July compared with June, and the year on year increase reached 9.3 percent. The main driver was more expensive petroleum products, which cost 0.6 percent more in July alone.

The annual comparison is sharper still: petroleum products are 11.4 percent more expensive than in July 2025. That is the only major item in the consumer basket moving up by a double digit figure, and it explains why the transport category posted a monthly increase while food kept falling.

New Classification Also Shifts the Base Year

Since January 2026, SORS has calculated the consumer price index and the harmonized consumer price index using the new international Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose, ECOICOP version 2. The new classification has 13 divisions, and some products and services have been moved from one group or subgroup to another.

The base year has shifted from 2006 = 100 to 2025 = 100, while the index calculation methodology itself has not changed. Previously published indices under the old classification remain available on the Statistical Office’s website, and the new series is being released according to the 2026 Publication Calendar.