NIS Awaits OFAC License by Midnight, JANAF and MOL Too

Three separate licenses from the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) expire tonight, in the hours between Friday, August 28, and Saturday, August 29, 2026, and no decision on extending them had arrived by this morning. The licenses cover the operations of Serbia’s oil company NIS (Naftna industrija Srbije), the Croatian pipeline operator JANAF’s transport of crude oil to NIS, and Hungary’s MOL as it continues talks with Gazprom Neft over buying Russia’s majority stake in the company.

Mining and Energy Minister Dubravka Djedovic Handanovic told Tanjug that the holdup lies not with Serbia or Russia, but with banks waiting on approval from Washington.

The banks are seeking permission from the U.S. administration to take their own steps. They aren’t willing to take on any risk.

She added that Serbia has already done its part. “We’ve finished our signing, negotiated our documents, and now it’s up to the other side to act,” the minister said. NIS filed a fresh request with the U.S. Treasury last week for a new special license, while the decision on extending the existing one is, as with previous deadlines, coming down to the wire.

Refinery Running at 13,000 Tons a Day

While Washington’s decision is awaited, the refinery in Pancevo has raised crude processing to 13,000 tons a day, its highest level in the past year. “The refinery is now processing 13,000 tons, which is, over the past year, I’d say, the largest processing volume,” Djedovic Handanovic said.

Crude imports are being squeezed by low water levels on the Danube, which allow for only about 20 percent of the usual monthly import volume, since barges can carry just around 30 percent of their capacity. The strain extends across the energy sector: Serbia’s hydropower plants are running at about 20 percent of capacity because of the drought.

What the Exchange Broker Says

Stock exchange broker Branislav Jorgic describes the situation as uncertain. “The nervousness is very high,” he told N1, noting that NIS, together with the state power utility EPS (Elektroprivreda Srbije), effectively dictates both fuel supply at the pumps and the functioning of the economy. He told Kurir that Serbia does hold certain reserves.

We have certain reserves for a certain period of time.

The portal Blic reported the same day that fuel reserves cover two to three months. Jorgic warns that if the license isn’t extended, shortages at the pumps wouldn’t become noticeable for a month or two, possibly three, and only if the sanctions dragged on that long. Until then, imports would have to move by tanker truck and rail instead of by river, which is both more expensive and slower.

Global prices are also weighing on fuel costs. Jorgic says the price of oil has dropped to around $87 a barrel, down from $90 to $93 earlier, while diesel prices are climbing at the same time because of damage to refining capacity in the Middle East and Russia.

Ownership Deal Awaits Bank Approvals

The sale of NIS itself is, according to the minister, essentially finished on paper. The preliminary agreement from January 2026 has MOL taking over 56 percent of NIS shares from Gazprom, and in June 2026 Serbia and MOL agreed on an additional five percent, contingent on the deal closing. What’s missing is approval from the banks that would finance the transaction, and those banks, the minister says, don’t want to expose themselves to the risk of secondary sanctions.

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic voiced optimism that the matter will be resolved in the coming weeks. “I hope we can wrap up the whole NIS story in September,” he told reporters. That’s the same deadline the president cited the last time a NIS license was about to expire.

Pipeline with Hungary as the Long-Term Fix

To reduce dependence on a single supply route, a pipeline is being built from the Hungarian border to Novi Sad. Construction is expected to begin by the end of 2026, the stretch on Serbian territory runs more than 100 kilometers, and the planned capacity is around 5.5 million tons of crude oil a year, enough that imports would no longer depend solely on JANAF.

The minister closed by pointing to the sanctions’ track record so far, in place since January 2023: “Nothing was missing” at the pumps, she said, despite the many problems the energy sector has faced over that period. Whether that run stays unbroken now depends on a decision being made in Washington in the final hours before the deadline.