EPS: 15 to 20 Billion Euros Needed by 2030

Serbia’s Association of Energy Experts estimates the country needs between 15 and 20 billion euros in energy infrastructure investment by 2030, according to the report “Electric Power Industry of the Republic of Serbia 2025,” presented on September 3 at the Palace of Science. The report was authored by Nikola Rajakovic, a professor at the University of Belgrade’s School of Electrical Engineering, and Ilija Batas Bjelic, a research associate at the Institute of Technical Sciences of the Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts and secretary general of the Association of Energy Experts.

“The bill has come due for a delayed or failed transition,” Rajakovic said at the presentation. His co-author was more specific in diagnosing the state of Elektroprivreda Srbije (EPS), Serbia’s state power utility, and the companies that depend on it.

“EPS is in a bad situation, and if it’s in a bad situation, so are Elektromreza Srbije and Elektrodistribucija Srbije, which rely on it,” Batas Bjelic said at the presentation.

That assessment rests on 2025 production figures. EPS generated 30.5 terawatt-hours of electricity that year, down four percent from the year before. Over the previous decade, output had ranged between 33 and 38 terawatt-hours: a peak of 36.8 terawatt-hours was recorded in 2016, a low of 31.1 terawatt-hours came during the crisis year of 2022, and 2023 saw 37.7 terawatt-hours produced. The 2025 result, in other words, came in even lower than the year when mismanagement, poor coal quality and equipment failures had already dragged output to a multi-year low.

How much is being invested in renewables

Lignite still accounts for about 70 percent of the production mix, hydropower for around 26 percent, wind for 3.8 percent, and solar for a negligible share. At the distribution level, the picture looks different: the number of solar power plants reached 209, with a combined capacity of 195 megawatts, and output grew 170 percent for a second straight year. During the year, 33 small power plants with a combined capacity of 106 megawatts were also connected to the grid, bringing Elektrodistribucija Srbije’s total to 446 generating facilities with 460 megawatts of combined capacity.

That growth in distributed generation has not stopped the overall share of renewables from falling. According to the report, renewables’ share of gross final energy consumption dropped to around 30 percent, down from 42 percent two years earlier, driven mainly by weaker hydropower output.

Coal imports and the cost of delay

Dependence on imported coal remains one of the sector’s core problems, the report finds. EPS imported 1.8 million tons of lignite in 2025, at a cost of about 181 million euros, even though the volume was lower than in 2023 and 2024. “We’re still not trying to get rid of coal, we’re taking the path of least resistance and importing it from abroad instead,” Batas Bjelic said. The report’s biggest hopes rest on opening the Radljevo mine, which is expected to reduce or eliminate the need for imports.

The authors argue that delaying the energy transition carries a concrete price tag on major projects. Costs for the Bistrica pumped-storage hydropower plant have risen 15 percent above the original plan, for the Kostolac B3 unit 18 percent, and for the Djerdap 3 pumped-storage plant as much as 85 percent. On top of that, Serbia’s carbon tax stands at four euros per ton, roughly twenty times below market value, which the authors cite as one reason meaningful incentives to move away from coal have been so slow to arrive.

The CBAM story continues

Srpske.rs has already reported on part of this report: the European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), in force since January 1, 2026, has pulled around 600 megawatts of bids off Serbia’s power exchange, since importers now pay carbon emissions charges on goods made using coal power. The rest of the report, covering investment needs, lignite imports and rising project costs, had not previously been published.

Also speaking at the presentation were energy expert Zeljko Markovic, who said Serbia could realistically start producing nuclear power no earlier than 2040, and Goran Djukic, head of the energy committee at the Serbia Center party, who blamed the sector’s troubles on poor personnel choices at the top of state energy companies and ministries. According to all sources, no representative of the Ministry of Mining and Energy, EPS, or Elektromreza Srbije attended the presentation.