Serbia's Wages Up 8.2%, July Prices Fall
A new issue of the Macroeconomic Analyses and Trends magazine shows net wages in Serbia rose 8.2% in real terms in the first half of 2026, while prices fell 0.2% in July, cutting inflation to 1.9%.
Serbia’s real net wages rose 8.2 percent in the first half of 2026 compared with the same period last year, while prices in July fell 0.2 percent on average. The figures come from a new issue of the Macroeconomic Analyses and Trends (MAT) magazine, published on Tuesday, September 8.
Why prices fell in July
Monthly inflation stood at 0.2 percent in June and minus 0.2 percent in July, meaning the price level in July was actually lower than in June. Year-over-year inflation eased from 2.7 percent to 1.9 percent over the same period.
MAT attributes the drop to cheaper food.
“This significant decline in year-over-year inflation is the result of movements in its non-base component, driven by lower food prices amid an exceptional harvest and falling prices of fruit and vegetables,” the analysis states.
The gap between 8.2 percent wage growth and negative inflation in July means real purchasing power grew faster than prices rose in the second quarter, or in July’s case, faster than prices fell. MAT points to this as grounds for further growth in domestic consumption.
How Serbia compares with the EU
Of the European Union’s 27 member states, only six had lower year-over-year inflation than Serbia in July 2026: Sweden, Czechia, Hungary, Denmark, Estonia and Malta. The other 20 EU countries recorded higher price growth in July.
The highest inflation rates in July were recorded in Romania (8.2 percent), Lithuania (5.4 percent), and Bulgaria and Cyprus (4.4 percent each).
Under the harmonized index of consumer prices used for comparisons across the EU, Serbia’s year-over-year inflation stood at 3 percent in June and 2.2 percent in July. The EU as a whole recorded 2.9 percent in June and 3 percent in July on that index, while the eurozone posted 2.8 percent in June and 2.9 percent in July. By that measure, Serbia’s July inflation came in below both the EU and eurozone averages.
GDP and industry grow, import coverage improves
Serbia’s real gross domestic product grew by roughly 3.5 percent year over year in the first seven months of 2026, placing the country among Europe’s fastest-growing economies, according to MAT. The only sector to record a decline in output was electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply; every other sector grew.
Total industrial production in the January to July period was up 0.3 percent from the same period in 2025, while manufacturing alone grew 1.3 percent.
Foreign trade kept expanding, with exports growing faster than imports. In the January to July 2026 period, exports covered 82.7 percent of merchandise imports, up from 79.4 percent a year earlier. According to Eurostat data, Serbia was also among the European leaders in year-over-year growth of real retail trade turnover in the first seven months of 2026.
Wages and food prices, an old gap narrowing
Serbian media have previously reported that food prices in Serbia reached 96.6 percent of the EU average while wages remained at roughly half the EU average. The new MAT data do not change that underlying gap, but they show it narrowed, at least partly, in the second quarter of 2026: real wages rose 8.2 percent, and falling food prices, according to the analysis itself, were the main reason inflation turned negative in July.
The next MAT issue will cover August data, which should show whether July’s price decline was temporary, tied to the seasonal fruit and vegetable harvest, or continues into the autumn months.
