EU Weighs Opening Cluster 3 for Serbia as Baltics Demand Sanctions
Some EU members push to open Cluster 3 for Serbia in July, but the decision needs unanimity. The Baltic states tie their consent to sanctions on Russia, others to rule-of-law progress.
- Some EU members want to approve the opening of Cluster 3 for Serbia as early as July, covering 8 chapters on competitiveness and inclusive growth.
- Opening requires the consent of all 27 member states, and the Baltic countries condition theirs on Serbia adopting sanctions against Russia.
- The European Commission judged back in 2021 that Serbia had met the technical benchmarks for this cluster.
- Other members demand visible rule-of-law progress, while probes into the March 15 protest further complicate the talks.
A series of intergovernmental conferences is expected in Brussels during July, where negotiating chapters are opened or closed, and part of the European Union membership is pushing to approve the opening of Cluster 3 this very month. The cluster is a group of eight chapters devoted to competitiveness and inclusive growth, one the European Commission has considered technically ready since 2021.
The decision, however, is held up by the rule of unanimity. Opening the cluster requires the agreement of all 27 member states, and several capitals are currently keeping their leverage in reserve. The Baltic states openly condition their consent on Serbia aligning its foreign policy with the EU and adopting sanctions against Russia. Other members insist on visible progress in the rule of law before they give a green light.
What is really blocking unanimity?
The Commission concluded as far back as 2021 that the benchmarks for this cluster had been met, closing out the technical part of the job. The political part, though, remains open, and that is where most of the friction now sits. According to Brussels corridor talk, some members measure progress not by the number of chapters closed but by the state of institutions, media freedoms and judicial independence.
The picture is further weighed down by investigations into the alleged use of a sound weapon at the protest held on March 15, 2025. In several member states, that question is treated as a test of how the authorities relate to the right to assembly, and it has become entangled with the negotiating file. The government in Belgrade rejects claims that any such device was used and says Serbia has met its share of the obligations. The opposition, for its part, argues that it is precisely the stall in the rule of law that slows the European path, and that the responsibility does not lie with Brussels.
For the Serbian side, Cluster 3 is no symbolic step. Competitiveness and inclusive growth span areas from entrepreneurship and industrial policy to education and social protection, so opening eight chapters at once would be the most concrete move in the accession talks after a long lull.
The message coming from Brussels
Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos has repeatedly stressed that enlargement is not merely a technical task for governments but a process for the whole of society. Her message is plain: enlargement is impossible without a strong civil society and independent media. That shifts the talks from the terrain of completed forms to the terrain of the actual state of democracy, which is exactly what the members seeking additional guarantees are demanding.
Little time remains before a final decision, and the arithmetic is well known. It takes just one capital to hold its veto for the opening of the cluster to slip to autumn. If, on the other hand, the Baltics and the skeptical members receive convincing signals, July could deliver Serbia’s first major step toward the EU in some time.
Is it realistic to expect Cluster 3 to open this very month, or is autumn the more likely deadline?
