Novi Sad SNS Rally: Archive Says 16,500, Police 110,000

The Archive of Public Gatherings announced on October 17 that 16,500 people attended the rally of the “Aleksandar Vucic United Serbia” list at Freedom Square in Novi Sad on October 16. The Serbian Interior Ministry (MUP) had earlier said that about 110,000 citizens were present, roughly 6.7 times the Archive’s estimate.

The gap is about 93,500 people. The published material shows what each side has said about its method, and what it has not.

How did the Archive arrive at 16,500?

The Archive of Public Gatherings is an association that estimates the size of public gatherings. For the Novi Sad rally, it says its estimate rests on a recording made at 6:23 p.m., while the official part of the rally was scheduled for 6 p.m. The method is described in the post as “a calculation of the rally’s area and an estimate of density by zone,” and the recording is credited to the account @dron_u_blokadi.

The post, as carried by Nedeljnik and Moj Novi Sad, gives no figure for the rally’s area in square meters and no margin of error. The 16,500 figure therefore refers to a single moment, 23 minutes after the scheduled start.

What does MUP say?

In its statement on the rally, MUP said that, “according to official estimates of the Novi Sad Police Department,” about 110,000 citizens were present. The statement also addresses the security side of the event:

The public gathering passed completely peacefully and without a single incident. Police officers successfully ensured stable public order and peace, the personal safety of all citizens present, as well as the unobstructed flow of traffic in the city after the gathering ended

The parts of the statement carried by Nis TV and Moj Novi Sad do not describe how the count was made or the moment to which the 110,000 figure refers. That is why the two numbers cannot be compared directly: one was calculated from a drone recording at a specific time, and MUP has given no details about the procedure behind the other.

What sets this Novi Sad rally apart?

According to Nedeljnik, it was the first SNS rally in Novi Sad since the canopy collapse on November 1, 2024, in which 16 people died.

We reported earlier on the arrival of tractors and six trains, and on the police security for the rally, but that coverage did not address the number of people present. Now there are two publicly available estimates that differ by more than a factor of six, and each carries the name of whoever published it: the Archive of Public Gatherings with its method and recording, and the Interior Ministry with the estimate of the Novi Sad Police Department.