Sabalenka: 'Paris is the last great hurdle for me'
The world number one starts her bid for a first non-hardcourt Grand Slam; a semi-final clash with Coco Gauff is already mapped on the draw.
At the entrance to the press room after Friday’s practice, Aryna Sabalenka offered reporters a pack of biscuits brought from Minsk. It was one of those spontaneous scenes that for the audience suddenly thawed the picture of the player over the last few months. The Belarusian had behind her shoulder problems in Madrid, a third-round exit in Rome, and was now in Paris facing for the first time since the Australian Open in January a tournament where she is the main favourite.
The main draw of Roland Garros was made on Thursday May 22, and play begins on Sunday May 24, according to the tournament’s official site. Sabalenka, the world number one, opens the tournament against Spaniard Jessica Bouzas Maneiro, a player who in the first round of Madrid this year produced an upset against Madison Keys.
What is the projected path to the final?
The WTA site notes that in the lower half of the draw is four-time champion Iga Swiatek, who in the third round could meet Jelena Ostapenko, the 2017 Roland Garros champion who against the Pole has a staggering 6-0 head-to-head. Sabalenka in the upper half of the draw could meet, in the fourth round, Naomi Osaka, the former world number one still making her way back on tour, or American Iva Jovic.
A semi-final clash with Coco Gauff, who played the Madrid final, is already projected on the draw, according to tennis.com. On the other side, the biggest threat to Swiatek is probably Elena Rybakina, who through 2026 has two trophies, one in Indian Wells and one in Brisbane. Sabalenka, who in February told WTA Insider that “Paris is the last great hurdle for me, the only Grand Slam I still don’t have”, is playing here with a different goal than in previous years: there is no longer the pressure of “record-breaking seasons” on her.
From the professional side, former Swiatek coach Tomasz Wiktorowski in a column for Eurosport assessed that for this tournament the decisive factor is form on the day, because “the difference between the top three women on clay this season is not statistical but psychological, recovery after two tough sets decides”. Sabalenka’s coach Anton Bogdanovic in the same interview said her “physical preparation is at the level that should have been in place in January, which means the calendar has finally clicked”.
What next, what are we watching in the first week?
The first week of Roland Garros carries three questions: will Swiatek escape Ostapenko in the third round, will Sabalenka navigate the first five matches without dropping a set, and will Madison Keys, the defending Australian Open champion, exit the tournament after the first round as she has in three of the last four major clay events.
Match times for the first days will be announced 24 hours in advance, in line with the standard protocol of the French Tennis Federation. Sabalenka’s first-round match is projected for Tuesday May 26, according to the puntodebreak.com schedule. That match will be followed not only by the French public, but also by Belgrade fans, who in the same night session have Djokovic’s second-round match.
The women’s final is played on Saturday June 7.
On the personal side, this year’s women’s Roland Garros may be the most open in the last decade. The difference is that none of the top four women has had a dominant clay season through 2026. Sabalenka with two titles in Madrid and Stuttgart is the favourite, but she didn’t play the Rome final, which is an indicator that the main challenges are still to come. Swiatek brought coach Wim Fissette back in March, but five career losses to Ostapenko leave a shadow over every match against that player. Gauff in Madrid showed she can play on clay, but she lacks serve consistency.
The biggest surprise of the tournament could be Mirra Andreeva, the 17-year-old Russian who in her main-draw debut at Roland Garros can reach the round of 16 without a major test. On the other side, Madison Keys, who started the season by winning the Australian Open, has never had success on clay, and the draw gave her a tough side with Elena Rybakina as a potential fourth-round opponent. That opens the door to a second line of names: Andreeva, Maria Sakkari or Bianca Andreescu.
