Buducnost vs Dubai for the ABA League final: 'Game 3, all or nothing'
On Thursday in Podgorica, the semi-final decider after the Blues' 91-90 comeback; the winner meets Partizan in the final for the regional crown.
At the Moraca, after Game 2 on Sunday evening, coach Andrea Trinchieri from his chair in the far corner of the dressing room just sat in silence. The Blues had just turned around a game in which they trailed by 13 points in the third quarter, finishing with a 91-90 win, with the ball in the final second stopped by good defence. “The next game is at the Moraca, not in Dubai, that’s all I can say,” said the Italian in the changing area before showering.
On Thursday in Podgorica is Game 3 of the ABA League semi-final, with the series winner meeting Partizan in the final for the regional crown. Tip-off is at 20:00 our time, at the Moraca Sports Centre, where the Blues are counting on an atmosphere Dubai in its four years of franchise existence has not yet experienced.
How did Buducnost get to the decider?
Dubai in Game 1 in the Emirates smashed the Blues 104-90, which put the series into an unfavourable context. In Game 2 in Podgorica, the Montenegrins through the middle of the third quarter led by 13 points, but Dubai with an 18-4 run came back and was a step away from the final. Trinchieri then brought Aleksa Avramovic back into the rotation after a five-minute rest, a risky call for a series of this format, but a decision that turned the game around.
The Blues in that game got 27 points from Petar Popovic, 19 from Suad Adams and 16 from Avramovic. The bench, with Bojan Subotic and Ognjen Carapic, added 22 points. On the other side, Dubai with Mfiondu Kabengele and Filip Petrusev had three averages below their play-off norm. The two who carried the team in the regular season did not deliver in Game 2.
In statistical terms, Buducnost in Game 2 made 17 out of 27 threes, 39 per cent, a strong result for a side whose season average peaks at 33 per cent. Dubai on threes dropped to 28 per cent, which for a series of this format was costly. In Game 3, played on a surface that is the Blues’ home, the averages would have to be closer to the norm, which for Dubai means fewer chances.
What awaits the winner in the final against Partizan?
The Black and Whites have already taken their place in the final with a 2-0 win over Zvezda, with Game 2 played on Tuesday May 21 at the Aleksandar Nikolic Arena. Head coach Zeljko Obradovic for the series against Buducnost or Dubai will have a week and a half of preparation, an advantage for a franchise that did not finish in the EuroLeague play-off. Bruno Fernando in the semi-final averaged 17.5 points and 8.2 rebounds, which for a player whose EuroLeague average is 11 points is a sign that form is returning at the right moment.
A best-of-five final is set for the period from May 31 to June 7, with a potential Game 5 in Belgrade. Partizan has a 12-title gap over Zvezda in ABA titles, which in that rivalry has always favoured the Black and Whites, but with a win in the current season the gap would shrink to 10. For supporters on both sides of Belgrade, that is the statistical context that plays a role in every clash.
Personally, I give Buducnost a 58 per cent chance of advancing. The Moraca atmosphere in Game 3 is decisive; Dubai with 12 trips this season is the most jet-lagged team in the league. On the other side, Partizan in the final against the Montenegrins would be the favourite, with Bruno Fernando as series MVP. Against Dubai in the final the series would be more uncertain, since the Emirates twice beat the Black and Whites in the regular season.
Game 3 of the semi-final begins on Thursday at 20:00 at the Moraca. The final series is scheduled to start on Sunday May 31.
