Knicks on the brink of NBA Finals for the first time since 1999: 'We can't fall'
New York lead 3-0 over Cleveland in the Eastern Conference Finals; Game 4 is Tuesday night in Cleveland, ten straight play-off wins on the board.
In Cleveland on Monday morning, at the post-Game 3 press conference, head coach Donovan Mitchell said only one sentence. “If we want to survive, we have to forget the first two games.” None of the Cavs players were available for questions, which in a 3-0 down play-off series is a particular sign. Mitchell, with Brick Mitchell, left after the press conference through a side door.
The Knicks have a chance on Tuesday night in Cleveland to close out the series 4-0 and reach the NBA Finals for the first time since 1999. Saturday’s 121-108 win was the 10th consecutive play-off win, a franchise record from the Patrick Ewing era. Game 4 is at the Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, with tip-off at 02:00 Central European Time, which for our readers means a late-night watch.
How did Cleveland get to this hopelessness?
The Cavs barely survived the Detroit Pistons in the Eastern Conference semi-final, in seven games, which left a trace in their muscles. Mitchell in Game 7 against the Pistons played 47 minutes, too much for a player who missed 18 regular-season games with a shoulder injury. In the series against the Knicks his statistics are solid, averaging 28.3 points and 6 assists, but his field-goal percentage is 41 per cent, low for a player carrying a team.
The difference is that the Knicks have bench depth Cleveland cannot match. Karl-Anthony Towns scored 32 points in 33 minutes in Game 3, Mikal Bridges added 24, Jalen Brunson 18 and 11 assists. The bench, Mitchell Robinson, Josh Hart, Tyrone White, delivered 38 points, which in a series of this format means the starting five can rest two or three minutes a quarter without losing momentum.
In statistical terms, the Knicks in Game 3 had a better defensive rating (98.4) and a better offensive rating (118.7) than their play-off average. Their three-point shooting in that game dropped to 41 per cent, which is taxing for Cleveland, whose main scheme around the zone was perimeter protection. Brunson in Game 1 produced a turnaround from minus 22 in the final quarter, the biggest comeback game of his play-off career.
What if the Cavs do survive in Game 4?
With Game 5 set for Wednesday May 28 at Madison Square Garden, a Cleveland return to the series would require three consecutive wins. The statistics in NBA play-offs say that only one team in NBA history has turned around a 0-3 series, the Boston Celtics against the Brooklyn Nets in 2004. The chances for the Cavs in this context are minimal, but Mitchell in his morning statement reiterated that “there is no end to the season as long as there is a chance to win one game”.
A motivational speech by Bogdan Bogdanovic in Atlanta, familiar to readers in Belgrade, ahead of Game 7 against Indiana in the 2024-25 season can be a parallel, but with a different outcome: the Hawks in that game lost 119-92.
On the personal side, I give the Knicks an 88 per cent chance of a 4-0 sweep. Cleveland does not have the physical condition to resist this kind of tempo after a 17-game play-off run. The Knicks on the other side have rest protocols head coach Tom Thibodeau introduces during the regular season, which they are cashing in now. The series winner plays the Spurs or Thunder in the NBA Finals, where an extraordinary clash is expected.
Game 4 starts Wednesday at 02:00 Central European Time. Game 5, if needed, is scheduled for 04:00 Wednesday night into Thursday.
