OKC and Spurs ahead of Game 5: 'Whoever holds home court goes to the finals'
The Western Conference Finals are tied 2-2; Wembanyama against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander; Game 5 tips off Tuesday night in Oklahoma City.
Ahead of Game 5 in Oklahoma City, Spurs conditioning coach David Thornton ran a two-hour Sunday night protocol with Wembanyama in a private room at the Paycom Center. The franchise posted footage to its Instagram account, but only five seconds of it, not enough for detailed analysis. What matters is that the 22-year-old Frenchman arrives at the bench on Tuesday with new knee braces, which for someone of his 2.24-metre stature means extra protection on the floor from which it is hardest to come back.
The Western Conference Finals are tied 2-2 after the Spurs’ 103-82 Game 4 win in San Antonio. The winner of this series faces the Knicks or Cleveland in the NBA Finals, which start Sunday June 1. Game 5 tips off Tuesday night in Oklahoma City, at 2:30 a.m. Central European Time on Wednesday.
How the Spurs even got to a tie
Heading into the series, sportsbooks gave the Thunder a 75 percent chance of advancing. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander posted an MVP statline in 2025-26: 32.7 points per game, 6.3 assists, 51 percent shooting. Thunder lost only one playoff game before the Spurs series, an unprecedented run for a team that won 64 games in the regular season.
Wembanyama in the series so far has been a factor on both ends. Averages of 27.2 points and 13.8 rebounds, with 4.1 blocks per game, are numbers last seen in the playoffs from David Robinson in 1995. In Game 4, which the Spurs won at home, the Frenchman put up 31 points, 16 rebounds and 7 blocks, the first triple double-double of its kind in the NBA playoffs since 2003.
The difference in the series is not in SGA and Wembanyama, but in secondary production. The Thunder rely on Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, but Williams missed 11 games in the regular season with a groin injury, which is showing in the closing stretch. Holmgren in Game 4 went 4-9 from three with three blocks. The Spurs, meanwhile, have Devin Vassell averaging 22 points in the playoffs, and Stephon Castle, who came off the bench in Game 4 with 27 points. The former Duke product Castle is, in the eyes of most experts (including former Lakers coach Frank Vogel), one of the most underrated players in this year’s playoffs.
What next, who has the edge in Game 5?
The statistics say that in NBA history 84 percent of series tied 2-2 are won by the team with home-court advantage in Game 5. The Thunder hold that luxury, and Game 7 too if needed. The Spurs have won only two playoff games on the road this season, a punishing record for a series against one of the best regular-season teams in history.
On the other hand, the cumulative load on SGA’s shoulders grows from game to game. The five-of-25 three-point line in Game 4 is, for someone shooting 35 percent from three in the playoffs, a sign of overload. Coach Mark Daigneault ran Sunday’s training with only nine players going full programme out of twelve, which for a series of this shape means the bench is not as fresh as in Game 1.
Personally, I give the Thunder a 62 percent chance to win Game 5. Home-court advantage is always a playoff factor, but the Spurs, with Wembanyama in form, can surprise, especially if Castle repeats his Game 4 minutes. However this is resolved, the finals series will be historic, since neither the Knicks nor the Thunder nor the Spurs have played for the title in the last 15 years.
Game 5 tips off Wednesday at 2:30 a.m. Central European Time. Game 6, if needed, is set for Friday in San Antonio. Game 7, if it comes to that, on Sunday in Oklahoma City.
