City Is All That Stands Between Rodri and Barcelona

Rodri has not taken part in a single preseason session with Manchester City this summer. After the World Cup final he underwent back surgery and has been in rehab ever since, away from the ball and the dressing room. Everything happening around him this August is happening over the phone, between Manchester, Madrid and Barcelona.

On Thursday, August 6, that story took a turn few people saw coming. Spanish outlet Marca reported that Rodri Hernandez has reached a full agreement with Barcelona on personal terms. ESPN said the same day that the midfielder has given the Catalans a green light to open talks with his club. For months the talk had centered on Madrid, but negotiations between Real Madrid and the player’s representatives stalled, and Barcelona seized the opening.

Why Did Barcelona Overtake Real?

According to ESPN, Rodri came away from his talks with Real with the impression that coach Jose Mourinho was not fully sold on signing him. Barcelona sent the opposite signal. He spoke with Hansi Flick about a specific tactical role, and Frenkie de Jong’s injury has opened a gap in Barcelona’s midfield that no one else covers quite the same way.

A player who lifted the trophy as Spain’s captain in July and now holds the Ballon d’Or does not pick a club by salary. He picks by who has told him exactly what he needs to do with the ball.

Four Years and 30 Million Gross

Spanish paper AS has published the terms on the table. The contract would run four years, with a gross salary of around 30 million euros per season, and Manchester City would receive a fee of around 60 million euros. That salary would put Rodri above Robert Lewandowski as Barcelona’s highest paid player.

Sky Sports had earlier reported that Real signaled last week a willingness to pay 50 million pounds. That figure was met with mockery in England.

“Forty to fifty million pounds? If you’re Manchester City, what’s the point of selling him? You might as well just keep him for another year.”

That was Jamie Carragher, the Sky Sports analyst. His math is Etihad’s math too: City does not want to sell the player and is preparing an offer for a new long term deal, even though Rodri is 30 years old and his contract runs out in a year, with no extension in sight so far.

What Every Club Has Done This Summer

The transfer window has already reshaped the midfields at all three clubs:

• Barcelona has signed Anthony Gordon and Karim Adeyemi
• Real Madrid has signed six players, Marc Cucurella, Bernardo Silva, Ibrahima Konate, Denzel Dumfries, Carlos Espi and Jan Diomande, most of whom play in defense
• Manchester City has signed Elliot Anderson, while Bernardo Silva left for Madrid

So City has already lost one midfielder from last season’s core and brought in one. If it now lets Rodri go too, it starts the season with two fewer names than it finished the last one.

When Could Rodri Even Play?

Not soon. Recovery from back surgery is still ongoing, and he is expected to miss the Community Shield against Arsenal and the opening round of the Premier League. That detail changes the picture for a buyer too: Barcelona would be paying 60 million euros and handing out its biggest salary for a player who cannot play for the first few weeks, after two seasons in which injuries kept breaking his rhythm.

City’s dilemma is purely mathematical and has nothing to do with sentiment. If it turns down 60 million now, next June it could watch its best midfielder leave for free. If it agrees, it sells him to a direct rival of its former coach, to a club that plays a style of football from the same school that shaped Rodri as a player.

My read is that the decision will not be made by City but by the calendar. As long as Rodri is in rehab, the club has an excuse not to answer. The day he returns to training, that excuse disappears, and the transfer window keeps ticking.