Kyiv changes strategy: new tactic gives Ukraine the edge, Russia loses ground
Over the four-week period from 21 April to 19 May, Russian forces recorded a net loss of 69 square miles of Ukrainian territory, while Putin's 9 May ceasefire offer marked the first such signal from the Kremlin since the start of the war.
Kyiv over the past four weeks has changed its main operational approach on the front, focusing on halting Russian forces in Donbas and pushing Moscow into talks that Ukraine can control. From 21 April to 19 May, Russian forces recorded a net loss of 69 square miles of Ukrainian territory. In the most recent week, 12 to 19 May, Russia lost 29 square miles, a tripling on the previous week’s loss of 12 square miles, according to Russia Matters in its regular weekly war analysis.
For Serbia, which combines a neutral position on UN resolutions with concrete humanitarian assistance to Ukraine and participation in European mechanisms for helping civilians, every phase of the war carries a double implication: for the domestic political debate, and for Belgrade’s standing in its dialogue with Brussels on foreign-policy alignment. According to the European External Action Service, Serbia this year recorded alignment with the EU’s common foreign and security policy at 64 percent, lower than the average for other candidate countries.
Putin’s call for a ceasefire to mark 9 May, Russia’s Victory Day, is the first such signal from the Kremlin since the start of the full-scale war on 24 February 2022, which analysts read as a mix of domestic pressure and frontline losses. Polls cited by Russia Matters show 62 percent of Russians back peace talks, while 61 percent of Ukrainians accept territorial compromises as part of any settlement. In April, Russia launched more than 8,000 drones at targets in Ukraine, the highest monthly figure since the start of the full-scale war.
What the new Ukrainian strategy contains
The Ukrainian shift in strategy, described in a Foreign Policy article by journalist and analyst Tom Roubrij, rests on three elements: concentrating smaller, mobile units in zones where the Russian army is trying to advance; the massive use of false-positioned electronic traps for Russian artillery and drones; and a large role for domestic drone production, which last year passed 3.5 million units. The strategy does not seek a major territorial breakthrough but is aimed at making Russia pay a high cost in manpower and equipment for every square kilometre.
Daniel Mihailescu, senior researcher at the Centre for Security Studies at ETH Zurich, in a short analysis for Le Monde said Kyiv “has managed to translate the concept of deep defence onto a technological level previously unavailable to medium-sized armies.” On his estimate, if the pace of Russian drone attacks drops below 6,000 a month over the next quarter, Ukraine will gain space to redirect some of its production to offensive operations.
Brussels and Berlin careful, Washington more withdrawn
Brussels during May reinforced the package of dual-use technologies reaching Kyiv through the European Peace Facility, focused on electronic warfare, frontline surveillance systems and logistics. EU High Representative Kaja Kallas told the Foreign Affairs Council that the Union “is continuing all deliveries without interruption” and called on member states to contribute by the end of June to a five-billion-euro package to strengthen Ukrainian air defence.
Berlin in its 2026 budget set aside 11.5 billion euros to continue assistance to Ukraine, confirming last year’s commitments. Washington, after Trump’s arrival in his second term, has moved to a smaller scale of direct military support, focused on facilitating commercial arms procurement contracts that Kyiv pays for from European sources. Foreign Policy’s account holds that this model is less predictable for Ukraine but gives it greater operational autonomy in deciding which systems to contract and from which suppliers.
From Moscow, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia “does not refuse talks,” but it will not accept negotiations that do not take the current situation on the ground as the starting point. Kyiv rejected that position earlier as unacceptable, demanding talks proceed from full respect for the internationally recognised borders of 1991.
The next concrete date is the NATO Council meeting at foreign-minister level in Brussels on 12 June, where formal confirmation of the mandate for the Alliance summit on 24 and 25 June in The Hague is expected. There, an agreement on extending structural obligations to Ukraine will be the main topic.
