Washington and Tehran close to a nuclear deal, Iran to hand over enriched uranium
Trump announced that the agreement with Iran is 'largely negotiated,' and Tehran has agreed in principle to hand over its stocks of highly enriched uranium, while five regional powers will arbitrate the details of implementation.
Washington over the past seven days formalised a diplomatic position that could bring the nuclear crisis with Iran to a close, with a direct knock-on effect on stabilising the global oil price. President Donald Trump said the agreement with Tehran is “largely negotiated,” and Iranian diplomatic structures have agreed in principle to hand over stocks of highly enriched uranium. The implementation details, the Times of Israel reports, will be finalised with the arbitration of five regional actors: Turkey, Pakistan, Jordan, Egypt and the Gulf states, a formula without precedent in earlier attempts to reach an agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme.
For Serbia, a major energy importer dependent on global price stability, any de-escalation of the conflict with Iran would deliver an immediate easing in the cost of petrol and diesel at the pumps. Iranian oil exports, at 1.3 million barrels a day before the February war with the United States, could gradually return to world markets. The Belgrade Institute for International Politics and Economy estimates this would lower the crude oil price in the third quarter by between five and eight dollars a barrel. Indirectly, that would ease the pressure on the fiscal framework Belgrade must deliver to Brussels in the October half-year package.
Trump, at a White House news conference on Friday, said only “technical questions” remained and that he expected an announcement in the next few weeks. From the Iranian side, the Mehr agency carried a short statement from Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei saying that “the framework of the deal has been reached, but specific modalities remain open.” That is less than the public affirmation Trump gave on the US side, but it is still the first public signal from Tehran that does not reject the agreement.
The conflict that forced the deal
The conflict between the United States and Iran, which Trump launched on 28 February without prior congressional authorisation, led to three months of exchanges of strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz and Fordow, and on military bases in Iraq and Syria used by Iran-linked forces. The pressure for a full halt, according to reports from the US Atlantic Council, came from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which judged that further escalation directly threatened their own oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz.
Suzanne Maloney, senior fellow for Middle East policy at Brookings, said in an analysis published on 21 May that Trump “got an agreement, but on terms he will have to sell carefully to a congressional majority that has already shown war fatigue.” In her assessment, the key question is not enriched uranium but the verification regime: Iran refuses International Atomic Energy Agency inspections under an “anywhere, anytime” regime, while Washington insists on access that includes military sites.
Baghdad, Damascus and Beirut watching from the second row
From Baghdad, Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein told the daily Al-Sabah that Iraq’s government “welcomes every step that returns stability to the region,” but that Baghdad insists any agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme must also include an obligation by Tehran to end its support for armed groups on Iraqi soil. From the Syrian side, the president of the transitional government Ahmed al-Sharaa has not commented publicly, but Damascus’s Foreign Ministry confirmed that the topic was raised in talks between Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on 15 May in Antalya.
From Beirut, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said that “any reduction in regional tensions would directly help Lebanon’s recovery,” particularly in the context of the return of displaced persons to southern Lebanon. That is a signal that Beirut expects any agreement with Iran also to include de-escalation along the border with Israel, where Hezbollah over the past year has reduced operational capacity but not its presence.
From Tel Aviv, Israeli sources report that part of the security establishment remains sceptical and that scenarios are being prepared for unilateral action if the verification process proves insufficient. Haaretz, citing multiple security sources, reported that the military top brass in Tel Aviv has cancelled weekend leave, read in Israeli terms as readiness for short-notice military action.
The next formal date is the meeting of the IAEA Board of Governors in Vienna, scheduled for 8 June, where Director General Rafael Grossi is expected to address the current state of inspections at Iranian facilities.
