Trump slows the Iran deal: 'Negotiators should not rush'
After the May 24 announcement that the agreement with Iran was close, the US president on Wednesday shifted tone and called for a slower pace, which Tehran received with scepticism.
The scope of Trump’s May 25 statement at the Mar-a-Lago residence, in which he said “negotiators should not rush” the deal with Iran, opens the question of how close the agreement between Washington and Tehran, which on Friday looked to be in its final phase, in fact is to conclusion. For Serbia, which over the past two years has been subjected to dual pressure from Washington and Beijing over NIS ownership and the implementation of OFAC sanctions, US dynamics with Iran are more than an indirect topic: they show the capacity of the Trump administration either to carry talks through to the end, or to halt them at the last moment for domestic reasons.
Trump told reporters the deal is “in good shape, but I don’t want my expert team pushing me into something that is not final.” He added that, “if it does happen, it will be the biggest since Camp David in 1979.” From Tehran, President Masoud Pezeshkian on Tuesday local time said the Iranian delegation in Oman “remains in Muscat with the same mandate” and that “the terms of talks from Friday have not changed.” Iranian Foreign Minister Saidi Sharibi the same evening rejected an Austrian intelligence report on Iran’s nuclear programme as “false and unfounded.”
What exactly is in the proposed deal?
According to information published Friday by Axios, and unofficially confirmed by delegations in Muscat, the deal would contain four key elements. The first is a temporary moratorium on Iranian uranium enrichment above five percent purity, the level used for reactor fuel but not for weapons. The second is a phased lifting of sanctions on the banking system and oil exports, with the first wave after 90 days of compliance verification. The third is the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping, which Iran over the past four years has periodically blocked in response to tensions with the US. The fourth, most sensitive element, is a prisoner exchange between the two countries, with names on both sides not yet announced.
From Brussels, EU High Representative for Foreign Policy Kaja Kallas on Tuesday on platform X said the European Union “supports any agreement that establishes long-term stability in the Gulf” and that she is in contact with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. From Paris, the French president, in a statement distributed by the Elysee Palace, supported the American effort but stressed that “the French position on the scope of sanctions in the final text would have to be consulted separately.” From Berlin, Chancellor Friedrich Merz in his address this Tuesday at the Bundestag said that “an Iran deal that does not include European guarantees is incomplete” and called for the E3 mechanism to be included in the final text.
What the slowdown means for Serbia
The implication for Serbia in the past few months has been considered exclusively through the lens of Russian-Serbian gas dynamics, where the Iranian component is indirect. If the Iran-US deal had been concluded in the first half of June, which by May 25 looked likely, the oil market in the Mediterranean would have reacted with a fall in price of five to eight dollars a barrel, which through the NIS pass-through would have cut revenues at the Pancevo refinery by some 25 million euros by the end of the year. The slowdown of the deal wipes out that forecast, with a neutral outcome for the Serbian economy.
Politically, the slowdown also means the OFAC sanctions regime remains extremely active in the final quarter of 2026, which for Serbia opens the question of whether the deadline for the change of ownership at NIS, which expires on June 6 with a possible 14-day extension, will be extended further. From Serbia’s Ministry of Finance, Minister Sinisa Mali on Monday told reporters he expects “another round of consultations with OFAC” during the first week of June. From Zagreb, where Mali was on a visit, he added that “Serbia’s economic interest is identical to what was publicly communicated on April 4,” language that in Belgrade economic circles signals continued public-arc negotiations by the authorities.
From Muscat, the Iranian delegation on Tuesday evening confirmed it will remain in the Omani capital until Friday May 30, when the next round of talks is expected. From Washington, Secretary of State Marco Rubio for the same week announced a visit to Riyadh, which some observers read as an opportunity to consult Saudi Arabia on the regional implications of any agreement.
