Vienna: new round of US and Iran nuclear talks opens

A new round of talks between the delegations of Washington and Tehran on the technical parameters of a future nuclear deal opened on Thursday at the headquarters of the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna. The talks are led by White House special envoy Brian Hook, with Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi heading the Iranian side.

This is the fifth meeting of the two sides since the start of the year. What differs from earlier rounds is that for the first time the team of EU High Representative Kaja Kallas is also present in the same hotel, holding separate consultations on the same day with the Russian and Chinese delegations. For Serbia, which renewed a technical agreement with the IAEA in February on the use of radioactive sources, the talks have direct implications for energy and scientific cooperation.

Dispute over the enrichment level

The central issue is the upper limit on uranium enrichment. Washington is calling for a return to the limit of 3.67 percent, defined under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action of 2015. Tehran is proposing a limit of twenty percent for medical isotope needs, with an obligation to store stockpiles above five percent in a third country.

The gap between the two positions is not only numerical, but also touches on technical sovereignty. Iran insists on the right to enrich on its territory, while the United States is proposing a consortium model involving Russia or Kazakhstan.

Without a verification mechanism with unrestricted IAEA inspector access there is no sustainable agreement, agency Director General Rafael Grossi said ahead of the Board of Governors session on Friday.

Response from European institutions

EU High Representative Kaja Kallas announced that Brussels will decide on the fate of the snap-back sanctions mechanism in the June package of measures. The mechanism, which allows automatic restoration of sanctions if Iran fails to comply with earlier obligations, expires in October.

Diplomatic activity on the margins of the Vienna talks includes:

• EU consultations with Russia on a technical model for a third party stockpile keeper
• talks with China on a guarantee framework for refinery capacity
• preparation of a joint statement by the three European signatories of the 2015 deal
• coordination with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates

France, Germany and the United Kingdom, as the European signatories, already sent a letter to the UN Security Council in March expressing readiness to trigger the snap-back mechanism if the Vienna talks fail to produce a result by September.

Implications for Serbia and the region

Serbia’s mission to the IAEA in Vienna is following the talks in a technical capacity. The Serbian Foreign Ministry has issued no official statement, but sources at the mission say Belgrade is interested in maintaining the sanctions regime to an extent that does not threaten energy projects with Russian and Chinese partners.

The sanctions question matters to Serbia also in the wake of recent talks over the status of Naftna Industrija Srbije, where Washington extended the waiver on Russian oil. The Iran sanctions and the Russia sanctions form part of the same regulatory ecosystem in Washington, and a decision on one package usually affects the other.

What comes after Vienna

The Vienna talks should run until Sunday. After this round, the two delegations meet again in mid June in Muscat, where Oman has emerged as a mediator. The final draft of the agreement, according to briefings from diplomatic sources, could be ready by the end of July.

Hungary, Slovakia and Italy have expressed reservations over the past two weeks about a tougher sanctions regime, while Poland, the Czech Republic and the Baltic states back the snap-back mechanism’s activation. Germany’s position under Chancellor Friedrich Merz remains undecided, with focus on the economic interest of German chemical companies present in the Iranian market.

Will the fifth round of talks in Vienna produce a technical draft on the enrichment limit, or will Iran seek a time extension through the UN Security Council ahead of the September deadline?