Trump Claims Iran Nearly Defeated, Promises Cheaper Oil
As the fighting enters a sixth night, the US president says Iran's arsenal is nearly 90 percent depleted and predicts oil will fall to 55 dollars. For Serbia, that means fresh uncertainty over fuel prices.
- Trump says Iran's military arsenal is nearly 90 percent depleted and that Tehran will be defeated very soon.
- The president predicts oil will drop to 55 dollars a barrel once the conflict settles, while the barrel now trades near 79 to 80 dollars.
- The United States has reimposed a naval blockade of Iranian ports and disabled one Iranian oil tanker.
- Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell by roughly 52 percent week on week, to 14 to 24 vessels a day over the weekend.
An oil price decided by moves between Washington and Tehran is no abstraction for Serbia: every jump in the global barrel reaches pumps from Subotica to Vranje within weeks, and domestic supplier NIS sets fuel prices against import parities. That is why the remarks the US president Donald Trump made as the conflict with Iran enters its sixth night echo here too, even though the war is being fought thousands of kilometers away.
Trump held a victorious tone despite the fact that the fighting continues. According to him, Iran’s military arsenal is nearly 90 percent depleted, and Tehran, he claims, will be defeated very soon. He added that he expects oil to fall to 55 dollars a barrel once the conflict calms, a marked drop from the current 79 to 80 dollars. The president also repeated his threat that he could strike Iranian power plants and bridges next week if Tehran refuses to negotiate.
What would cheaper oil mean for Serbia?
Trump is betting that the collapse of Iran’s war machine would quickly push energy prices down, but for now the market is moving the other way. The barrel is holding near 80 dollars precisely because of fears that the conflict could choke off Gulf supplies. For Serbian drivers, that means any eventual drop, if it comes at all, would lag the political rhetoric from Washington by weeks, while every new escalation could first push prices up at local pumps.
Serbia imports crude and refined products, and its energy stability depends on a calm flow in the global market. The president’s arithmetic, that cheap oil will arrive as a reward for military victory, sounds appealing, but the geopolitical reality is that markets react to uncertainty, not to announcements. As long as the strikes continue and Iranian missiles fall on bases in the region, a risk premium stays baked into every barrel.
The Hormuz blockade and pressure on Tehran
The United States has reimposed a naval blockade of Iranian ports and, according to available accounts, disabled one Iranian oil tanker that tried to evade it. The effect is visible in Hormuz, the strait through which a fifth of the world’s oil passes: traffic fell by roughly 52 percent week on week, to just 14 to 24 vessels a day over the weekend, according to ship movement data.
For Tehran this is a double blow, as revenue from oil exports collapses while it must simultaneously answer American and Israeli strikes. By openly threatening to target power plants and infrastructure, Trump is raising the stakes, trying to draw Iran to the negotiating table before the conflict slides into a longer war of attrition. European capitals are for now mostly calling for de-escalation, aware that a prolonged Gulf war would hit the continent’s energy bills directly, Serbia included.
The question that remains is how long markets can ignore the victorious rhetoric, and whether oil will first grow more expensive before it finally, as Trump promises, gets cheaper. Do you believe the end of the conflict would truly lower fuel prices at Serbian pumps, or is cheap oil just a campaign promise from the other side of the Atlantic?
