Tenth Night of US Strikes on Iran, Gas Tops $4

The war between the United States and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil passes every day, has entered its tenth straight night, and its consequences are no longer an abstract geopolitical reality confined to a distant Gulf. They now show up as a figure at the pump that carries all the way to the Balkans. A disruption at the narrowest chokepoint of the global oil trade pushes prices higher on European exchanges, and that increase, with a lag of a few weeks, is felt at Serbian filling stations and in the cost of importing energy, in a country that still sources most of its refined fuel from abroad.

The clearest sign that the conflict has slipped its bounds came from the American economy itself. The US national average price of gasoline has reached $4 a gallon, the American Automobile Association reports, the first time since the war began. For President Donald Trump, who campaigned on a promise of cheap fuel, that is a politically sensitive line, and it is now shaping the debate inside the White House over how far the military campaign should go.

Blockade reinstated, Iranian oil waiver revoked

The escalation began a week ago. On July 14, Iran attacked two commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, the vessels Mombasa B and Al Bahyah, in a strike that killed one sailor and wounded eight. Responsibility was claimed by the Revolutionary Guard, Iran’s IRGC, moving the incident out of the gray zone and into open confrontation.

Washington responded in two moves. The United States reinstated a naval blockade on July 15, then revoked the temporary sanctions waiver that had allowed Iranian oil limited access to the market. That closed one of Tehran’s last valves, and the memorandum of understanding reached on June 17, meant to open the way to a final settlement, effectively collapsed before it could take hold.

The diplomatic channel, which only a month ago looked like a realistic option, is now all but empty. European chancelleries are watching with growing unease, since every additional day of blockade deepens the energy uncertainty on a continent that has only just come through one expensive winter.

What does the tenth night of war mean for fuel prices in Serbia?

Unlike previous rounds of tension, this crisis leaves a direct and measurable mark on the consumer. When the price of oil jumps on the world market because of risk in the Strait of Hormuz, that jump travels down the supply chain to refineries, wholesalers and, finally, to the pumps in Belgrade, Nis and Novi Sad. Serbia has no control over the cause, but it bears part of the cost.

In the United States itself, crossing the $4-a-gallon threshold is more than a number; it is a signal that Trump has less and less room to maneuver. According to Axios, the president met with his team in the Situation Room and is weighing an offensive whose scope would be wider than the air strikes carried out so far. A broader operation also means greater risk to shipping through the strait, and therefore fresh pressure on prices, in a loop that feeds on itself.

The question from Belgrade is not whether the Gulf war will affect Serbian drivers, because it already does, but how long European markets can absorb each new day of blockade before it shows up on the heating bill and in the cost of moving goods. The tenth night is not the end, and probably not even halfway through the story. How much are you willing to pay for a gallon, or a liter, of someone else’s war?