US Hits Iran for Twelfth Night, Rubio Says Tehran Pleads

For Serbia, which feeds its domestic refining through the Adriatic oil pipeline and reacts sharply to any jump in crude prices on world markets, the new wave of US strikes on Iran is not a distant story from the other side of the world. It is a question of the price at the pump and the predictability of energy imports. Washington says it has hit targets inside Iran for a twelfth straight night, and a conflict that began as a limited exchange of fire is now cutting into the shipping lanes that carry a large share of the world’s oil exports.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio delivered his sharpest assessment yet of Iran’s position. In his words, Tehran is under pressure and looking for a way out, but is not yet ready to accept the terms of an agreement that would halt the operation. Washington, Rubio said, remains open to a diplomatic channel, but not under duress and not at a price that would leave Iran with leverage to blackmail its neighbors.

Rubio keeps the pressure, Tehran weighs its reply

Rubio went further and described Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz as a dangerous precedent, warning that no single country should keep its hand on the valve through which a fifth of the world’s oil passes. That framing is not just rhetoric for a domestic audience. It defines what Washington sees as the operation’s ultimate goal: not toppling the Iranian state, but stripping away its ability to threaten freedom of navigation and to arm allied forces across the region.

At the same time, Yemen’s Houthis have continued to target tankers, and passage through Bab el-Mandeb, the narrow gap between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, has become too risky for commercial vessels. Hitting tankers reroutes oil flows and threatens deliveries to Asian markets, which depend most heavily on Middle Eastern exports. A local conflict is thus spilling onto the global energy market, and distance from Belgrade stops being a shield.

The cost of the war for the United States is climbing too. The Pentagon chief estimated the operation so far at roughly 37.5 billion dollars and signaled a request for additional funds to replenish stocks of cruise missiles and other weapons spent over twelve nights of strikes. It is a tally showing that even a limited air and naval campaign quickly reaches a scale measured in tens of billions.

What does closing the strait mean for oil prices?

For European markets, and for Serbia, the key question is not who wins the political contest but how long the main shipping lanes stay blocked. Any prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz or Bab el-Mandeb raises the risk premium on crude and makes shipping insurance more expensive, and that cost eventually flows through to the retail price of fuel in countries that import oil. Serbia has no direct exposure to Iranian crude, but full exposure to the world price, since its domestic refining depends on imports at market terms.

European capitals are choosing a restrained tone for now, calling for de-escalation and for freedom of navigation to be preserved, without openly lining up behind the American campaign. The EU’s High Representative has already warned that a prolonged conflict threatens the stability of energy supply ahead of autumn, when European demand traditionally rises. For Belgrade, which balances between its European perspective and its own energy arrangements, every additional day of conflict means less room for predictable import planning.

If Tehran really is looking for a way out, as Rubio claims, the question is whether a deal will come before the disruption on shipping lanes permanently shifts fuel prices, or whether the twelfth night of strikes will be just one in a long series. How much are you willing to pay per liter of fuel before a conflict in the Middle East starts showing up on your own bill?