Thirteenth Night of US Strikes on Iran as War Costs Mount

A war being waged thousands of kilometres from Belgrade is already felt at Serbian filling stations and in budget projections, because every new night of strikes on Iran lifts the price of oil and the insurance premiums for tankers crossing the Strait of Hormuz, the channel through which a fifth of the world’s oil moves. Through July 24, the United States carried out its thirteenth consecutive night of air strikes on Iranian targets, pushing the American offensive into its third week and driving the total cost of the campaign past 37.5 billion dollars. At the same time, President Donald Trump’s administration asked Congress for a further 67 billion dollars, a figure that would place this operation among the most expensive US military interventions of the past decade.

The latest wave of attacks killed at least four people, and Tehran responded by widening the conflict to its Gulf neighbours, striking targets in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan. With that, the front line shifted from Iranian territory to the wider region, drawing in states that had until recently tried to stay out of the fight. Saudi air defences intercepted missiles fired by Yemen’s Houthis, while the United Nations envoy for Yemen warned of renewed attacks in the Red Sea, another sensitive maritime corridor that carries a significant share of European trade.

Why does the Strait of Hormuz matter for Serbia too?

The Strait of Hormuz is not an abstract point on the Gulf map but a narrow gateway through which roughly twenty million barrels of oil pass every day, so any disruption there echoes directly on global markets and, in turn, in fuel prices in importing countries such as Serbia. Insurance premiums for ships crossing the strait now stand four times above the five-year average, meaning that moving each barrel has become costlier before it even reaches a refinery. Oman, which traditionally keeps a diplomatic channel open with both Tehran and Washington, has taken on the role of mediator in talks over the safety of navigation through the strait, though so far without visible results.

For Serbia’s energy calculus this is more than distant geopolitical reality. Disruptions to oil supply spill over into the European market within days, and Serbia, which covers most of its needs through imports, has little room to absorb sudden spikes. The European Commission has yet to adopt a common response to the war’s energy fallout, so each member state and each candidate country bears the burden of uncertainty on its own.

Netanyahu in Washington as the front widens to the Gulf

Amid the escalation, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been announced for a meeting with Trump at the White House, an encounter likely to determine whether the American campaign moves from air strikes to a broader operation or whether Washington seeks a way out through mediation. The request for another 67 billion dollars suggests the administration is counting on a prolonged conflict rather than a swift ceasefire, despite growing pressure from part of Congress to justify the costs before they are approved.

Diplomatic channels remain open, but thin. While Oman tries to ease tensions around the strait, the spread of the front to Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan is pushing this war from a bilateral clash between Washington and Tehran towards a regional conflict with an unpredictable outcome. If oil prices hold at elevated levels through the whole third week, European consumers, Serbs among them, will feel it at the next fill-up. How ready is Belgrade for a prolonged energy shock coming out of the Gulf?