Fragile Pause: US and Iran Halt Strikes After 13 Days

The fragile pause between Washington and Tehran, reached after thirteen nights of mutual strikes, concerns Serbia more directly than the geographic distance suggests: every new escalation in the Persian Gulf and every threat to close the Strait of Hormuz pushes oil prices higher on world markets, and with them the price of fuel at Serbian pumps, at a moment when the country’s oil sector is already operating under the weight of US sanctions.

An Iranian military spokesman said American forces had suspended their attacks over the past two nights, after which Tehran halted its own response, producing the first break in the exchange of fire since the war began thirteen days ago. The halt, however, rests not on a signed agreement but on mutual restraint, and officials in the Iranian capital are openly warning that they will widen the conflict geographically if Washington resumes its strikes.

Tehran claims Israel’s leadership is pressing US President Donald Trump to continue the campaign, while inside Israel the prevailing conviction is that a new round of bombing is only a matter of days away. That gap in expectations, combined with the absence of any written document, is the difference between a pause and a peace, and it explains why the lull is described as fragile.

Why a fragile pause does not mean the war is over

Trump halted the strikes ahead of an announced meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, at which, according to briefings, the two will discuss the situation in Iran. The outcome of that conversation will determine whether the pause turns into negotiations or into a fresh wave of attacks, since Washington and Tel Aviv disagree over whether Iran’s nuclear and missile potential has already been sufficiently degraded.

Alongside the quiet in the skies, a diplomatic channel has opened. Under a proposal jointly drafted by Qatar and Pakistan, both sides have signaled a willingness to return to dialogue and to their positions from before the latest escalation, which would mean reopening the Strait of Hormuz and easing US sanctions on Iranian oil exports. In Oman, where a separate round of talks on the safety of Hormuz shipping is under way, progress has been reported, though without concrete guarantees.

That the conflict does not remain confined to the Washington-Tehran axis is underscored by the fact that Yemen’s Houthis downed a Saudi reconnaissance drone, drawing the Gulf into the wider logic of confrontation. Incidents like these give weight to Iran’s threat of a geographic widening, because they show that Tehran commands a network of allies capable of opening new pressure points from the Red Sea to the Gulf.

What the pause means for Serbia and the region

For Serbia, an energy-importing economy, every day of calm in the Gulf means a more predictable oil price and a steadier budget, while a closure of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil passes, would quickly disrupt the supply chains on which Serbian industry also depends. The European Union, which expects Belgrade to align its foreign policy, is for now calling on both sides to show restraint and backing the Qatari-Pakistani initiative as a diplomatic framework.

Belgrade officially stays clear of the Middle East crisis, but its consequences recognize no borders: rising energy prices, new migration pressures and the shift of great-power attention from the Balkans to the Gulf are already shaping the context in which Serbian diplomacy makes its decisions. The question that arises is not whether the pause will hold, but what Serbia will do if word of fresh strikes arrives from the Middle East again tomorrow morning. Do you believe this truce is the beginning of peace, or merely a breather before a new escalation?