Iran Keeps Hormuz Shut Despite Trump's Deal Announcement
Despite Donald Trump's claim that a framework deal had been reached, the northern corridor of the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to ships that lack clearance from Iran's armed forces.
The northern corridor of the Strait of Hormuz was still packed with ships waiting on Sunday afternoon, since passage through Iranian territorial waters requires clearance from Iran’s armed forces, even though US President Donald Trump had announced only hours earlier that a framework agreement had been reached that would immediately and fully reopen the waterway. For Serbia, this isn’t a distant story out of Gulf geopolitics: the oil that feeds domestic refineries arrives by sea through Adriatic terminals, priced against the world benchmark that gets set wherever the tankers are being counted, so every week of delay at Hormuz reaches Serbian pumps within a few weeks, but it reaches them.
What’s Actually Happening in the Strait
Close to 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas shipments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and control over that passage, not the nuclear issue, is what keeps both sides locked in the fight. Iran applies the same clearance regime to the southern corridor, the one that runs through Oman’s territorial waters, while Washington insists that route is free and that ships owe no one a request for permission. The gap in interpretation isn’t academic: the Revolutionary Guard has kept firing on or turning back ships that try to pass along the route hugging the Omani coast.
That leaves one route that one side calls open and the other calls closed, with shipowners choosing between the risk of being shelled and the risk of waiting for weeks. Most have chosen to wait.
Why Did the June Memorandum Collapse in Under a Month?
The memorandum of understanding reached on June 17 called for a partial reopening of the strait, an end to the American blockade of southern Iranian ports, and a two month easing of sanctions on Iranian oil exports. It fell apart within a month, and every one of its provisions has since been voided.
Analyst Ross Harrison said the renewed fighting came down to the document’s ambiguity: the mechanism for reopening was left just vague enough that each side could read its own version into it. Washington took from it a right of free passage for ships through the southern corridor; Tehran took from the same text that its armed forces still govern navigation there. An agreement that allows two readings isn’t an agreement, it’s a dispute on hold.
Tehran’s Tone Hasn’t Changed
Iran’s war command warned that American and regional interests could become targets of retaliatory strikes if Washington hits civilian infrastructure. Majid Ebn-e Reza, Iran’s acting defense minister, waved off Trump’s announcement in a statement to Iranian media, calling it a tactic: “This is within the framework of psychological operations and a war of calculations.”
Ali Hezrijan, a member of Iran’s parliament, went further still, telling parliament that state leadership should be moved underground: “We must be able to protect our leaders and officials from assassination, underground and in the belly of mountains.”
A country debating whether to relocate its institutions into mountain bunkers is not a country about to sign anything soon.
The Other End of the Same Front
The conflict has long since spread to the Red Sea. Yemen’s Houthis have attacked Saudi energy facilities and tried to hit or turn back ships linked to Saudi Arabia, turning Bab el Mandeb, the exit from the Red Sea toward the Suez Canal, into a toll gate rather than a shipping lane. We’ve previously reported on drones being shot down over Kuwait and on American strikes targeting Iranian oil exports, and the pattern repeats: the pressure doesn’t lift, it relocates.
Sunday brought relative calm to the region compared with the preceding days. That kind of calm is a pause in the rhythm of strikes, not a change in the underlying situation, since no ship still waiting for clearance on Saturday got it by Sunday.
What This Means for European and Serbian Math
Europe’s energy math for autumn was drawn up on the assumption that Hormuz would function, at least partially. If the northern corridor stays under a clearance regime while the southern one stays under fire, that assumption collapses just as storage tanks are being filled for the heating season. Serbia isn’t a player in that chain but an end buyer, the worst possible position from which to negotiate price.
The next date that will actually matter isn’t Trump’s announcement, it’s the moment the first convoy passes through the southern corridor without escort and without warning. Until then, the strait stays closed, whatever the announcements say.
