Copernicus: Europe's Record Heat Leaves Danube Running Low
EU climate service Copernicus says western Europe had its hottest June and July on record, 21.62 degrees Celsius, while the Danube, which also flows through Serbia, runs unusually low.
The European Union’s climate service, Copernicus, published its June and July readings on Monday, August 10, 2026, and one figure in that report touches Serbia directly: the Danube, which flows through ten European countries including ours, is carrying an unusually low volume of water this summer. Over the same period, western Europe recorded its hottest June and July since measurements began, with an average air temperature of 21.62 degrees Celsius, beating the previous record set in 2022.
Heat waves have gripped the continent since May. In that stretch, major wildfires broke out, drought deepened, and a string of national temperature records fell. France and Spain fought some of the worst fires in their recent history this summer.
Why Is This Summer’s Drought Worse Than 2022?
The answer lies in the ground. Copernicus reports that surface soil moisture across western Europe in July 2026 was markedly lower than in July 2022, the year of the region’s last severe drought. Once soil dries out, it stops acting as a natural cooling agent, and heat builds up above it more quickly.
Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which runs Copernicus, explained the mechanism in a statement accompanying the data:
Persistent high pressure systems trapped heat over western Europe, and the extreme temperatures in turn intensified the widespread drought. As soil dries out, it loses its ability to cool naturally, so heat builds up more easily. This is a clear example of how climate change amplifies temperature extremes, with heat and drought increasingly reinforcing each other.
Extreme to record rainfall and soil moisture deficits were recorded in France, Spain, Austria, Hungary, the United Kingdom, Ireland, parts of Germany and Iceland.
The Seine, Rhine and Danube Running Low
Three major European rivers stand out in the report as hit especially hard. Low flows on the Seine, Rhine and Danube have disrupted river shipping, irrigation and power generation across several European countries.
For Serbia, this is more than news out of Brussels. It is the same waterway that enters the country at Bezdan and exits through the Djerdap gorge, carrying freight toward the Black Sea. When the level drops, barges cut their draft and cargo load, and transport costs rise along the whole route, not only upstream in Austria and Hungary.
The domestic picture already reflects this. Serbia’s Republic Hydrometeorological Service has forecast temperatures up to 39 degrees for this Monday, and water restrictions are in force in Cacak. The European report places that local episode in a wider frame: this is not one scorching day but a two month pattern that broke the continental record.
The Global Numbers
The average global air temperature in July stood at 16.90 degrees Celsius, or 1.47 degrees above pre industrial levels, making last month the joint second hottest July on record.
The ocean measured even higher. The average sea surface temperature outside polar regions in July was 20.96 degrees, above the previous record of 20.89 degrees set in 2023. A warmer sea also means stronger storms and heavier rainfall once that moisture is released.
Copernicus also points to the longer trend: the past 11 years have been the 11 hottest on record.
The year is not over yet. Copernicus currently ranks 2026 third, behind 2024 and 2025, but scientists say it could still climb toward the top or overtake 2024 before the year ends, driven by the combination of accelerated warming and a strong El Nino, the periodic warming of parts of the Pacific that shifts temperatures worldwide. Autumn readings will settle the question, and the European service’s next monthly bulletin will show how closely August followed the same pattern.
