Banja Luka: SNSD Unveils First Poster, Dodik Claims 40%

Bosnia and Herzegovina’s general election campaign officially opened on Friday, September 4, and that same day, at noon, SNSD unveiled its first campaign poster on the square in front of the Palace of the Republic in Banja Luka. For Belgrade, this is a direct read on the mood in Republika Srpska, the entity home to the largest number of ethnic Serbs outside Serbia, a month before a vote that will decide who runs the Banja Luka government for the next four years and who represents the Serb people in Bosnia and Herzegovina’s joint institutions.

The poster, carrying the slogan “Always with the people, always with Srpska,” was unveiled by SNSD leader Milorad Dodik, Serb member of the Bosnian Presidency candidate Zeljka Cvijanovic, and Republika Srpska presidential candidate Savo Minic, in front of the party’s leadership, members and supporters. Dodik used the occasion to offer his own estimate of the party’s support.

“The campaign starts today and runs until October 4, when we are supposed to declare victory at every level,” Dodik said, adding that SNSD currently has 40 percent support in Republika Srpska and that the party needs to, as he put it, “sweep” the upcoming elections.

He also said the situation in the entity was stable.

“The Republic today is stable and in order, and we have taken a series of measures to keep it that way,” Dodik said, addressing the crowd after the symbolic unveiling of the poster.

The campaign that opened in Banja Luka is being fought on six levels of government at once. On October 4, citizens will choose the three members of the Bosnia and Herzegovina Presidency, 42 members of the House of Representatives of the state parliament, 98 members of the House of Representatives of the Federation of BiH parliament, 83 members of the Republika Srpska National Assembly, the president and vice presidents of the Republika Srpska entity, and the assemblies of all ten Federation cantons. According to the Central Voters’ Register, 3,414,364 people are eligible to vote, including 48,074 registered to vote from abroad.

Bosnia and Herzegovina’s Central Election Commission (CEC) had received 81 filings from political entities by the start of the campaign, 77 parties and four independent candidates. The same commission, even before the campaign officially opened, had already fined three parties, SNSD, SDP and PSS, for campaigning early and for using children in political promotion, a sign that oversight of the race began before the starting gun. The campaign runs until 7 a.m. on October 3, when a pre-election silence takes hold ahead of the vote, and the entire process is being monitored by the international mission of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), through its Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR).

Srpske Novine reported a day earlier that Bosnia and Herzegovina’s campaign would begin on September 4 and run for a month until the vote. That forecast turned into a fact on the ground on Friday: SNSD was first to open its campaign with a symbolic gesture in the Republika Srpska capital, while other parties, chiefly those from the Federation of BiH, are expected to unveil their own candidates and posters in the coming days.

For the Serb people in Bosnia and Herzegovina, this election is not only about the makeup of the entity assembly. The Serb member of the Bosnian Presidency, elected directly by voters in Republika Srpska, has a direct hand in running the whole state’s foreign policy, including its stance on European integration and its relationship with Belgrade. Cvijanovic, who currently holds that post, is running again according to SNSD’s announcement, while Dodik’s estimate of 40 percent support remains, for now, an unverified figure from the party itself, with no independent opinion poll to confirm or challenge it.

The final makeup of institutions across all six levels will not be known until the Central Election Commission processes the results after polling stations close on October 4 and completes the legally required complaints and appeals procedure, a process that in practice takes weeks after the vote itself.