Hurricane Louel Nears Hawaii, Warning for Kauai and Niihau

Hurricane Louel, a Category 3 storm packing sustained winds of 115 to 120 mph as of Sunday evening, was churning roughly 455 to 500 miles southwest of Kauai and moving north at nine to ten mph. Hawaii authorities have issued a hurricane warning for Kauai County and the island of Niihau, a warning that also covers part of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals. The storm’s strongest impact is expected overnight Monday into Tuesday.

Louel has already been through a rapid rise and fall in strength. It peaked as a Category 5 storm overnight between Friday and Saturday, weakened to a Category 4 by Saturday, and was measured as a Category 3 hurricane by Sunday. Under the Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s latest official warning, issued Sunday, there is little time left to get ready.

“Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion,” the Central Pacific Hurricane Center said in its warning.

Forecasters expect the storm’s center to pass west of the main Hawaiian Islands overnight Monday into Tuesday, tracking through the waters of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument before curving northwest and slowing down by Wednesday. A flood watch is in effect statewide through Tuesday afternoon.

Hawaii Governor Josh Green declared a state of emergency on Friday and activated the National Guard in response. Addressing residents after the declaration, he said preparations needed to be wrapped up.

“Finish your preparations, follow official warnings, and stay away from floodwater, dangerous surf and other hazardous areas,” Green said.

Kauai County’s emergency management agency has designated five shelters for residents and warned that power outages, should they occur, could last several days. The National Weather Service further warned that waterspouts are possible near Kauai and Niihau on Monday.

Rain, Surf and Storm Surge Across the Islands

Forecasters expect the heaviest rainfall on Kauai, which also faces a risk of flash flooding and landslides:

• Kauai: 6 to 10 inches of rain, isolated amounts up to 14 inches
• Big Island: 4 to 8 inches
• Oahu: 4 to 6 inches
• Maui: 2 to 4 inches

Along south-facing shores, surf is expected to build to 12 to 20 feet on Oahu and 12 to 16 feet on the Big Island and Maui by Monday evening. Storm surge is projected at one to three feet in Kauai County and up to one foot on Oahu, with the deepest water and most destructive waves striking the stretch of coastline nearest to, and just to the right of, the storm’s center.

National Weather Service meteorologist John Bravender cautioned reporters on Friday that being near the edge of the forecast cone is no guarantee of safety. “Just because we’re on the edge of the cone doesn’t mean we’re safe,” Bravender said.

Part of a Wider Pattern of Pacific Systems

Louel is not the only system circling the northern Pacific these days. Former hurricane Karina is weakening not far from the Big Island, while Hurricane Mary, with winds just above Category 1 strength, sits off the coast of Mexico and is already sending dangerous surf into parts of Southern California. According to Colorado State University data, this Northeast Pacific hurricane season has produced 15 named storms so far, a total experts partly attribute to unusually warm ocean water and the presence of El Nino.

While conditions are being tracked hour by hour, the forecast for Louel itself remains clear on one point: the system is expected to hold onto hurricane strength as it passes Hawaii, and only afterward, as wind shear and dry air take hold, will it begin weakening more quickly toward tropical storm status.