Houthis Seize Mokha, Oil Tops $100 a Barrel

World oil prices crossed $100 a barrel on Thursday, September 10, and one of the triggers for that jump played out thousands of kilometers from Belgrade, at the southern end of the Red Sea. Yemen’s Houthi forces entered the port city of Mokha that day and pushed closer to the Bab el Mandeb strait, through which nearly a third of global maritime trade and a quarter of the world’s daily oil and refined product shipments pass. Serbia imports most of its crude oil and refined products from the world market, so a jump in the price of a barrel eventually reaches the pump at home, even though the strait sits on the other side of the planet.

The city fell, according to four military sources within Yemen’s government cited by Reuters, after forces loyal to the internationally recognized government withdrew from it. Three government officials described the withdrawal as an abandonment of positions. Witnesses saw Houthi fighters entering the city shouting “death to America, death to Israel,” while footage circulating on social media showed armed members of the movement on Mokha’s main street.

Not every source agreed that the city had actually fallen. Yemen’s government had not publicly confirmed by Thursday evening that Mokha was lost, Euronews reports. The National Resistance Forces, which lead the west of Yemen under Tariq Saleh, nephew of assassinated former Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh, say their units never left the city and are instead reinforcing it.

Regrouping and consolidation of forces are underway in coordination with the anti-Houthi coalition.

That statement came from the National Resistance Forces through their own outlet. By their account, a commander entered Mokha with a military contingent on Thursday morning while troops were being redeployed, and clashes were also reported between those forces and the Houthi navy.

How Close Is the Strait?

Mokha sits less than 80 kilometers north of Bab el Mandeb, the strait linking the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, whose Arabic name means Gate of Tears. Having entered the city, Houthi forces now hold territory less than 100 kilometers from the strait itself. Forces backed by Saudi Arabia are pulling back further south, toward Dubab, a town that sits directly on the strait’s coast opposite Perim Island, a rocky volcanic island that splits the waterway into two navigable channels. Control of Dubab and the island is, according to Reuters sources, key to controlling the entire strait. The Houthis are simultaneously attacking the Hanish Islands, further out in the Red Sea.

The city had been under sustained attack since early August, when more than 25 rockets hit it within a few days and forced the port to halt operations.

Why the Strait Matters So Much

Bab el Mandeb, together with the Strait of Hormuz, is a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies. The two straits combined carry a quarter of the world’s daily oil and refined product shipments and close to a third of global maritime trade, including cargo bound for the Suez Canal and on to Europe, as well as Russian oil headed for Asia. With Iran having already effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a blockade of Bab el Mandeb would cut Saudi Arabia and other Gulf oil producers off from their main export routes.

The War Widens, More Than 500 Dead

Yemen’s conflict has escalated on multiple fronts in recent days. Saudi aircraft carried out roughly 40 airstrikes on September 10 across the provinces of Taiz, Hodeida, Al Jawf and Marib, in response to Houthi ballistic missile and drone attacks on several cities in southern Saudi Arabia that wounded more than 70 people. More than 500 people, mostly combatants, have died in the fighting since last week, according to an estimate by the French news agency. More than 20,000 people were displaced from the provinces of Taiz and Hodeida over the past two weeks, and on Thursday alone hundreds of women and children fled Mokha for the government-controlled provinces of Lahj and Aden.

The Iran Connection

The Houthis are part of the so-called Axis of Resistance, a network of armed groups backed by Tehran across the region, alongside Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. Pakistan passed on a Saudi warning to Iran to rein in its Yemeni allies after the intensified attacks on the kingdom, in an attempt to stop the crisis from spreading further.

Iran does not control the Houthis.

That was the response of an unnamed senior Iranian official to the warning, according to Daily Sabah. At the same time, according to two Iranian sources, Tehran told the Houthis last week to continue their attacks on Saudi Arabia, promising additional money and weapons, while several commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps traveled to Yemen to help coordinate the strikes.

Ten Years of War Without a Resolution

The Houthis seized the capital, Sanaa, in 2014, driving the internationally recognized government south, and Saudi Arabia led a military intervention in 2015 to push them back and restore that government to power. A United Nations-brokered truce has held since 2022 and has largely halted open warfare, but it has never turned into a lasting political settlement. The Houthis now control roughly a third of Yemen’s territory, home to most of the country’s population.

Whether the Houthis will actually reach the strait’s shoreline, through Dubab and Perim Island, or whether Tariq Saleh’s regrouped forces will stop them there, remains an open question for the days ahead. The answer will also decide whether world oil prices keep climbing, and with them the bills at gas pumps far from the Red Sea.