US Troops Leave Iraq as Deadline for Last Bases Ends

The US troop withdrawal from Iraq has reached its deadline: today, September 30, is the cutoff for leaving the last bases in Kurdistan, in Erbil and at Harir air base, which ends Operation Inherent Resolve, the coalition mission against the Islamic State. An Iraqi government official says the departure is complete, but as of publication the US military had issued no confirmation of its own, and other reports describe an exit scheduled for Wednesday.

What exactly is ending, and who confirms it?

The coalition arrived in Iraq and Syria in 2014, when the Islamic State seized large parts of both countries. The group was defeated in Iraq in 2017 and in Syria in 2019, but foreign forces stayed because of its remnants. Baghdad and Washington agreed in 2024 to wind down the mission, the first phase of the plan was completed in September 2025, and the coalition left Syria earlier this year.

The numbers differ. SOFX reports that about 2,500 American troops were in Iraq before the exit, but that estimate describes an earlier period. Al Jazeera and Antiwar.com note that only a few hundred advisers remained in recent months, consolidated at Erbil air base in late 2025. Antiwar.com adds that Al Jazeera reported on Tuesday that the last American soldiers had left Camp Victory in Baghdad.

The agreement was signed by the Biden administration, which argued that it only changed the nature of the mission into a “bilateral security partnership,” while the full departure was carried out by the Trump administration. Washington keeps its embassy in Baghdad, the largest American embassy in the world, along with a consulate in Erbil, and shifts the relationship toward economic and bilateral defense cooperation. Twenty-three years have passed since the 2003 invasion, and about 4,500 American soldiers died in operations in Iraq, according to the Times of Israel.

Why is Kurdistan afraid of losing its air defense?

Patriot and C-RAM systems, which intercept short-range missiles and drones, have been removed from Erbil and Harir. Kurdish authorities say that since the US-Israeli war with Iran began on February 28, Iran and Iraqi factions close to Tehran have fired nearly 1,000 drones and missiles at Kurdistan. The Kurdish outlet Rudaw recorded 88 attacks in July, in which 10 people were killed and 15 wounded.

Masrour Barzani, prime minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government, warned that the region cannot answer the strikes on its own:

“The withdrawal of these air defense systems will surely expose us to risk.”

He told the Financial Times: “The threat is real, we are vulnerable, we are being attacked.” He then added: “Now, to be left alone without any, let’s say, adequate defense system, it’s a shame.” Residents of Erbil told AFP they are increasingly worried about who will protect them from the drones that have repeatedly targeted the region once the coalition’s interceptors are gone.

On top of that, Iraq’s Counter-Terrorism Service killed two suspected Islamic State suicide attackers on September 28 near Altun Kupri, north of Kirkuk, and wounded and arrested their driver. Kurdish commander Sirwan Barzani says sleeper cells have grown more active since the withdrawal was announced.

What does Baghdad gain, and what does it risk?

Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi declared October 1 Sovereignty Day and said in a statement:

“The first of October will be a new day in the course of the Iraqi state, with a land freed from any foreign military presence and with national sovereignty over its territory completed.”

The government declared a four-day holiday in state institutions, which according to SOFX and Shafaq News runs from September 30 to October 3. The heads of the executive, legislative and judicial branches called Sovereignty Day a national occasion on Monday, adding that “the presence of weapons outside state authority must be resolved” within timelines set by the government.

That point is the most sensitive. The original deadline for disarming the militias was September 30 itself, and Zaidi pushed it back to June 30, 2027. The plan provides for 90 days in which armed groups would halt attacks in exchange for guarantees that American forces will not target them, followed by the handover of weapons. Kataib Hezbollah, Harakat al-Nujaba and Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada have given no sign that they will surrender their arms, says Alina Romanowski of the Atlantic Council. Kataib Hezbollah called the departure a step toward full sovereignty, but threatened the government: “A government that does not work for the good of its people will be overthrown by all possible means.”

Abu Mujtaba al-Jasiri, commander of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, told Reuters it is a “historic victory,” and said in a statement ahead of the withdrawal:

“On September 30, we will celebrate the turning of a black page in Iraq’s history and the failure of the occupation to impose its will on our country.”

Douglas Silliman, a former US ambassador to Iraq and Kuwait, sees the prime minister’s calculation in the departure: he is building a political argument before Iraqis that the militias no longer have a reason to keep their weapons. Renad Mansour of London’s Chatham House warns that these groups are in “full war mode” and will keep targeting American interests, and describes Baghdad’s fear this way: “The concern of the Iraqi government is that the United States may no longer need Iraq or, at worst, sees it as a pariah state, too close to Iran, and therefore as another target.”

The Iraqi army, Silliman warns, has no answer to drones and missiles, and key security ministries, including the defense ministry, have not been filled. Iraqi analyst Jasim al-Bahadli tells AFP:

“The lesson of the last two decades is that a security vacuum can be extremely dangerous.”

Lahib Higel of the International Crisis Group urges Washington to preserve bilateral security cooperation: “Washington cannot dictate Baghdad’s relationship with Tehran, nor can Tehran dictate Iraq’s relationship with Washington.”