Anthropic Eyes $965 Billion Valuation in Race With OpenAI
Anthropic raised capital in late May at a valuation near $965 billion, overtaking OpenAI, as both firms move toward public listings and the market pivots to efficiency.
- Anthropic raised capital in late May at an estimated valuation near $965 billion, surpassing rival OpenAI.
- Both firms filed confidential paperwork for public listings in early June, with Anthropic's IPO expected in October 2026.
- Google has invested about $10 billion in Anthropic with an option for $30 billion more, while Amazon put in $5 billion with plans for another $20 billion.
- Market sentiment is shifting: users are moving from spend-at-any-cost access toward cheaper, more efficient alternatives.
The race between the two leading artificial intelligence companies entered a new phase in late June. Anthropic, the maker of the Claude model, raised fresh capital in late May at an estimated valuation near $965 billion, overtaking longtime leader OpenAI by market estimate. Both firms filed confidential paperwork for initial public offerings in early June, and Anthropic’s listing is expected in October.
These figures are measured in hundreds of billions of dollars, but they rest on investor estimates rather than realized profit. A private company’s valuation is set during a funding round, based on the price investors are willing to pay for a stake, and it should not be confused with the market capitalization of a public company. That is exactly why the move toward an IPO matters: only then will the broader market, rather than a narrow circle of backers, judge what these companies are truly worth.
Large technology investors stand behind these numbers. Google has invested about $10 billion in Anthropic, with an option to put in $30 billion more, while Amazon has invested $5 billion with plans for another $20 billion. Such sums show how willing the biggest companies are to tie their future to generative AI, and also how expensive that infrastructure is to run.
Why is market sentiment shifting?
Notably, user behavior is changing even as valuations hit records. The early period was defined by spend-at-any-cost logic, in which firms paid for expensive calls to the most powerful models to get the best results. Now a growing share of users is turning to cheaper, more efficient alternatives, including the Chinese model DeepSeek, which offers comparable results at far lower cost.
That shift is about more than price. It raises a serious question about what these valuations rest on. If the market rewards efficiency rather than the raw power of the largest models, then the revenue needed to justify a near-trillion-dollar valuation is not guaranteed. Major backers are betting that demand for advanced models will keep growing, but user behavior suggests even that is not certain.
What does going public actually change?
A confidential IPO filing means the companies are preparing the ground to sell shares to the public, but the details have not yet been disclosed. The process lets a firm align its financial statements with the regulator before the numbers become available to everyone. For Anthropic, whose listing is expected in October, it means showing for the first time how much it truly earns and spends.
For outside observers, this is the moment when promises meet the books. Estimates in the hundreds of billions of dollars have so far rested on growth expectations, and a public listing brings a transparency requirement that can confirm or undercut them. It is worth keeping in mind that this article describes market estimates and announced plans, not realized business results, which have not yet been publicly confirmed.
What can be said with certainty is that the AI industry is entering a phase where it will be measured by real numbers, not just promises. Will efficiency ultimately beat the raw power of the largest models, or will the market reward those who spend the most?
