Dinar middle rate against the euro at 117.19 RSD, ECB decision ahead
The National Bank of Serbia middle rate for 29 May stood at 117.1932 RSD per euro, with the rate moving in a narrow band of 117.15 to 117.28 since the start of the year, while financial markets await the European Central Bank's 5 June decision.
- The National Bank of Serbia middle rate for 29 May stood at 117.1932 RSD per euro.
- Year-to-date movement: a narrow band of 117.15 to 117.28 RSD.
- The European Central Bank decides on the direction of the deposit rate on 5 June from its current 2.25%.
- The National Bank of Serbia intervened in May, buying €240 million in the interbank market.
The National Bank of Serbia middle rate for 29 May 2026 stood at 117.1932 RSD per euro. The rate has moved in a narrow band of 117.15 to 117.28 dinars since January, the tightest six-month range in seven years.
Exchange rate stability is the result of a managed float regime that the National Bank of Serbia maintains through intervention in the interbank FX market. In May the central bank net bought €240 million.
What the ECB decides on 5 June
The European Central Bank’s Governing Council meets on 5 June to decide the direction of key rates. The current levels following the 25 basis point cut in April:
- Deposit facility rate: 2.25%
- Main refinancing rate: 2.40%
- Marginal lending facility rate: 2.65%
A consensus of analysts in a Bloomberg survey dated 27 May expects rates to stay on hold. The quantitative inflation projection for the euro area in the second quarter is 2.1%, exactly on the ECB target.
Reactions from domestic banks
The head FX dealer at Banca Intesa Serbia, Edin Cogic, quantified the spillover assumptions in remarks to biznis.rs on 28 May.
A possible decision by the ECB to hold the deposit rate at 2.25 percent, combined with a 25 basis point cut to the National Bank of Serbia reference rate, would not move the dinar exchange rate by more than 0.1 percent on a monthly projection.
Cogic gave the alternative scenario.
A surprise 25 basis point cut to the ECB deposit rate, which the market puts at about 15 percent probability, would open room for a mild dinar appreciation in the 0.2 to 0.3 percent range within two weeks.
Comparison with regional currencies
The dinar’s stability against the euro in May 2026 is reinforced by a wider regional comparison. A three-year volatility index, measured as the standard deviation of daily changes, gives the following picture:
- EUR/RSD: 0.12%
- EUR/HRK (before the euro changeover): 0.08%
- EUR/HUF: 1.84%
- EUR/PLN: 1.62%
- EUR/RON: 0.31%
The dinar’s lower volatility reflects the managed float policy and the National Bank of Serbia intervention framework. The same comparison does not apply for Hungary and Poland, where currencies float freely in wider ranges.
What are the projections for year-end
Erste Group Research, in a regular regional currencies report dated 26 May, projects EUR/RSD at 117.30 by the end of 2026. That is just 0.1% above the current rate, reinforcing the stability call.
The factors feeding into the projection:
- Current account position: deficit around 6% of GDP, financed by FDI flows
- FDI projection for 2026: €4.4 billion
- External public debt: €27.8 billion (47% of GDP)
- National Bank of Serbia reserves to imports: 8.2 months
It is an open question whether cutting both key rates, the National Bank of Serbia’s and the ECB’s, in the same week would shift the base stability scenario.
Follow domestic bank reactions to the National Bank of Serbia and ECB meeting outcomes for the next update.
