Serbia FX reserves hit a record near 30 billion euros

The National Bank of Serbia (NBS) held gross foreign reserves of about 29.88 billion euros at the end of May, the highest end-of-month level on record. Reserves rose by 1,725.8 million euros from the end of April, extending a build-up that the central bank treats as its first line of defence for the dinar.

The composition of that increase matters as much as the headline figure. Alongside the foreign currency component, monetary gold holdings climbed above 54 tonnes, raising the share of assets that do not depend on currency-market swings and that act as a stabiliser of the overall portfolio in volatile periods. Central banks across the region have steadily strengthened the gold leg of their reserves in recent years, and the Serbian reading fits that pattern.

What do record reserves mean for the dinar?

The absolute size of the reserves tells you less than the coverage ratios do. At the end of May the reserves covered 167.5 percent of the M1 money supply, meaning the NBS holds more than one and a half units of foreign currency for every unit of the most liquid domestic money in circulation. The second standard gauge, import coverage, stood at 6.9 months of goods and services, against the three-month threshold the IMF generally treats as comfortable.

Taken together, those two figures explain why the dinar held almost flat against the euro in May. Over the first five months of 2026 the national currency weakened by just 0.1 percent in nominal terms, which is effectively a stable exchange rate. The NBS runs a managed float, and a high level of reserves gives it room to smooth swings on the interbank market without spending in a way that would erode the reserves themselves.

How sustainable is this level for the rest of the year?

May’s increase reflected inflows from borrowing, foreign currency purchases on the domestic market and returns on invested assets, rather than a one-off effect. That distinction is important: reserves that grow on structural inflows are more durable than those inflated by a single bond issue. The ratio worth watching in the coming months is gross versus net reserves, because the net position strips out the NBS’s liabilities to banks and other entities and shows more precisely how much free room is actually available.

For businesses and households the effect is indirect but concrete. A stable exchange rate reduces uncertainty for importers and for households with euro-indexed loans, while a high level of reserves lowers the risk premium foreign investors demand on Serbian debt. The next monthly NBS report will show whether May’s record is the peak of the cycle or simply another step in a longer build-up.

Do you care more about the size of the reserves or about the dinar staying stable?