Clock Ticks for NIS: Three Days to OFAC Deadline

The operating license that the U.S. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) issued to Naftna Industrija Srbije expires on July 1, 2026, which means just three days remain until the deadline. At the same time, the sale-and-purchase agreement that would transfer Gazprom Neft’s 56.15 percent stake in NIS to Hungary’s MOL is still being finalized, as confirmed by the Ministry of Mining and Energy. The license has been renewed in short intervals and, judging by the pattern so far, this is likely the last extension before OFAC demands a resolution of the ownership structure.

The shareholder agreement on managing NIS, signed by Serbia and MOL on June 16, was reported in the media as a breakthrough, but in substance it does not change the owner. That document sets out how the company will be run if the transaction goes through, and also provides for the Serbian state to buy an additional 5 percent of NIS shares and gain stronger management rights. The change of majority owner, however, depends on the agreement between Gazprom Neft and MOL, which had not been closed at the point the license was set to lapse.

What exactly is still missing to close the deal?

The decisive condition for completing the transaction is not the signatures of Belgrade and Budapest, but OFAC’s approval of the ownership change itself. The operating license currently in force covers refinery operations, oil imports and the financial settlements needed to supply the market, but not the transfer of the Russian stake. That is why the shareholder agreement, however detailed, remains legally incomplete without a parallel American green light for Gazprom Neft to exit ownership.

The United States imposed sanctions on NIS on October 9, 2025, over its majority Russian ownership, and since then the company has operated under temporary licenses renewed in successive rounds. Each extension bought time for negotiations, but did not remove the underlying problem: as long as Russian capital sits in the ownership structure, NIS remains under the sanctions regime. The agreement with MOL was designed precisely as a mechanism to exit that regime, provided the transaction wins Washington’s consent.

Why the Pancevo refinery depends on the deadline

NIS owns the refinery in Pancevo, Serbia’s only large processing facility, which supplies both industry and consumers. The agreement between Serbia and MOL provides for the refinery to keep running if the Hungarian company becomes the majority owner, with an obligation to secure supply for the domestic market. Without a new license extension or a closed ownership transaction, the refinery would again face the kind of risk it already saw during earlier interruptions to its oil supply.

The country’s energy security is thus tied to a calendar of just a few days. If OFAC does not extend the operating license and the sale is not finalized and approved, NIS would be left without a legal basis for normal business. If an extension arrives, it buys another short window to close the transaction, but not a final solution. As long as the sale-and-purchase agreement is neither signed nor approved, the shareholder agreement remains a promise rather than a deal.

Is three days enough to close a transaction the parties have been negotiating for months, or does Pancevo face yet another extension?