Serbia GDP Growth Revised to 3.8 Percent in Q2
Detailed calculations from Serbia's national statistics office show real GDP growth of 3.8 percent in the second quarter of 2026, two tenths of a point above the July flash estimate.
Serbia’s real gross domestic product grew 3.8 percent in the second quarter of 2026 compared with the same period a year earlier, according to a detailed calculation the Republic Statistical Office (RZS) published on August 31, titled Quarterly Gross Domestic Product of the Republic of Serbia, Second Quarter 2026.
The figure is higher than the flash estimate RZS published on July 31, which had put growth for the same quarter at 3.6 percent. Unlike the flash estimate, the detailed calculation is compiled at lower levels of aggregation, so the statistics office releases it a month later and typically adjusts the first, quick figure in the process.
The second quarter accelerated compared with the first. Growth in the January to March 2026 period stood at 3.2 percent, making the second quarter 0.6 percentage points faster. Seasonally adjusted data, which compare a quarter with the one before it rather than with the same period a year earlier, show growth of 1.5 percent.
By sector, agriculture grew fastest, at 12.1 percent, following growth of 11.6 percent in the first quarter. Construction posted growth of 9.1 percent after contracting in the first quarter: according to RZS data, that jump was driven mainly by public works tied to the EXPO exhibition. Wholesale and retail trade, transport, and accommodation and food services grew 4.4 percent, while professional, scientific and innovation activities together with administrative and support service activities grew 5.8 percent.
By expenditure component, household consumption rose 4.0 percent, and consumption by non-profit institutions serving households rose 4.2 percent. Government consumption grew 2.5 percent, while gross fixed capital formation rose 3.3 percent.
Foreign trade grew faster on the import side than the export side in the second quarter: exports of goods and services rose 4.1 percent, while imports rose 5.2 percent. When imports outpace exports, net exports on their own act as a drag on overall GDP growth, even as the economy as a whole accelerated from the first quarter.
RZS releases quarterly GDP data in two steps. The flash estimate arrives a month after the quarter ends and relies on a narrower set of available indicators, while the detailed calculation, with a full breakdown by sector and expenditure component, follows a month later, once the office has a wider set of administrative and statistical sources at hand. The same sequence played out after the first quarter of 2026, when the flash estimate was likewise revised later on.
