Brent Crude Tops $100, European Gas Holds Near €77

Brent crude futures rose $2.15, or 2.2%, on September 9, reaching $100.07 a barrel. It is the first time since July that the benchmark crude has crossed the psychological $100 mark, Informer reported, citing Reuters. American WTI crude gained $1.70, or 1.83%, the same day, reaching $94.73 a barrel.

Reports through the day did not entirely agree with each other. Telegraf Biznis reported at 10:51 am that Brent had crossed $100 during trading, with WTI around $94.5, without a more precise second decimal. Informer gave more exact figures at noon, $100.07 against $94.73. Tanjug, earlier that same morning at 9:19 am, while Brent was still below the mark and trading above $99, also reported the price of European gas: October futures on Amsterdam’s TTF market stood at €76.70 per megawatt hour at the time, down 1.3% on the day. European stock indices were mostly lower that morning.

Why the Price Is Rising

Brent has gained a quarter of its value since the start of August. Srpske.rs already covered the first breakout, when crude reached $99, in “Oil Breaks $99 After Attack on Saudi Arabia.” The cause is the same today: attacks by Yemen’s Houthis on Saudi energy infrastructure have sparked fires at oil facilities, while threats in the Red Sea are further endangering routes that had been used to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped from eight to nine million barrels a day to under two million barrels a day. The International Energy Agency estimates that global oil supply will fall by 4.3 million barrels a day this year, or roughly 4%.

Bank forecasts point in two directions. Bank of America warns that a wider conflict could push oil as high as $150 a barrel. Goldman Sachs, on the other hand, has kept a more moderate estimate of around $90 a barrel by the end of 2026, noting that in an extreme scenario during 2027 the price could still climb to $120. Norbert Rücker, an economist at Julius Baer, says the risk premium currently built into the oil price is unusually high, meaning a de-escalation of the conflict could quickly pull the price back down.

The International Energy Agency also warns that gasoline and diesel markets are extremely tight, with refining costs rising, particularly for diesel. That marks a difference from earlier oil price spikes, when it was only the crude barrel that got more expensive, not the refining of the fuel itself.

What It Means for Drivers in Serbia

A rise in crude prices does not automatically translate into an equal percentage increase at the pump. What drivers actually pay also depends on the dinar’s exchange rate against the dollar, distributor margins, taxes and excise duties, and how long Brent stays above $100. Markets typically absorb a brief spike through margins, while a multi-week stretch of expensive oil, combined with a stronger dollar and pricier diesel, would put more serious pressure on retail fuel prices, not just in Serbia but across the region, from Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro to Croatia and North Macedonia.

The gas side of the story looks calmer for now. A price of around €77 per megawatt hour on the TTF is not a record, and the daily drop reported by Tanjug shows that, unlike the oil market, the gas market has not yet started tracking geopolitical tension at the same pace. Ahead of the heating season, this is a figure that will be watched closely for weeks, since the gap between a calm and a jittery gas market feeds straight into heating bills.

The next marker to watch is whether Brent holds above $100 for more than a few days. Until that becomes clear, analysts at Julius Baer see the market caught between two scenarios: a quick retreat below $90 if the conflict eases, or a lasting shift of the floor higher if attacks on tankers and energy infrastructure continue.