Ristic November forecast: frost Nov 5 to 9, then milder

What weather should you expect in November? Rain, and snow on the mountains, for the first five days, then four dry days with cold mornings, and the first flakes in the lowlands only right at the end of the month. That is what meteorologist Ivan Ristic’s new monthly forecast says, the first this autumn to be split into ten-day periods.

We already wrote over the weekend about the rain until Thursday and the first snow on the mountains. This is a look at the whole month, with one important catch: amateur meteorologist Marko Cubrilo sees something different for the middle of November.

In brief, by date:

• November 1 to 5: cloudy, rain at lower elevations and snow at higher ones
• November 5 to 9: no precipitation, mornings from 0 to 5 degrees, patchy light frost
• From November 10: changeable and milder, daytime highs of 12 to 16 degrees
• End of the second and start of the third ten-day period: fog, gloomy skies, daytime highs of 8 to 12 degrees
• End of November: stronger cooling and the first flakes at lower elevations

What does Ristic predict for the first five days of November?

Rain, and snow on the mountains. In the forecast, as carried by Mondo and Novosti, Ristic says the month opens under the influence of an upper-level cyclone from northeastern Europe, a so-called “gate of cold air”.

From November 1 to 5 it will be cloudy, with occasional precipitation: rain at lower elevations and snow at higher ones.

Sleet and snow are possible even on the lower mountains, at about 1,000 meters above sea level. Ristic ties that to Sunday morning, as well as to Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. On November 1 on Zlatibor, snow turns to rain around noon because of warmer air from the east. On Golija and Kopaonik it is mostly snow, and the snow cover is growing.

There will be plenty of rain, but not the same everywhere. According to Ristic, northern Serbia may get 10 to 15 millimeters, while south of the Sava and the Danube it may be 60 to 70 millimeters per square meter. In that part of the country, he says, a whole month’s worth of precipitation can fall in three to four days.

When does the frost arrive, and what about the flowers on the terrace?

From Thursday, November 5. Ristic says the precipitation stops that day, and stable weather lasts until November 9.

Precipitation will stop and the weather will stabilize for a short while starting Thursday, November 5. The calmer weather will last three to four days, but the mornings will be exceptionally cold.

Morning temperatures will range from 0 to 5 degrees. In many places they drop below zero, with light frost down to minus 3 in the lowlands. It will be around zero in the Belgrade area too. Ristic therefore advises bringing delicate potted flowers indoors. If you have pots on a terrace or balcony, that is the job for the first day without rain.

What comes next, from November 10 to the end of the month?

Milder, then foggy, then colder again. This is how Ristic lays out the second and third ten-day periods:

Stabilization of the weather will last until November 9. From November 10 we enter a more changeable but warmer period.

Mornings are then 5 to 10 degrees and daytime highs 12 to 16, with occasional rain, and sleet and snow on the higher mountains. At the end of the second and the start of the third ten-day period, dry but gloomy and foggy weather arrives: highs of 8 to 12 degrees and morning lows of 2 to 6.

The last stretch of the month is colder.

Toward the end of the third ten-day period, stronger cooling is expected, along with the first snowflakes at lower elevations.

At the very end of November and the start of December, Ristic says, a surge of cold air arrives from the northeast, with daytime temperatures of 3 to 6 degrees and mornings around zero.

Why does Ristic link this November to El Nino?

In a conversation with Informer, carried by Novosti, Ristic explains that unusual things are happening around the world. A strong El Nino, in his words, is blocking the Atlantic, so warmer air does not reach us. At the same time the polar vortex is splitting in the stratosphere, which opens a path for cold air from Russia.

Such an early split has never been recorded.

Even so, the weather here is, as he puts it, “still within the bounds of normal”.

Where does Cubrilo disagree with Ristic?

Around November 10 and 11. Cubrilo published his forecast on October 29, and the portal Nova carried it. For November 10 he writes:

Around November 10, with slightly colder weather, snow cannot be ruled out even in the lowlands.

For around November 11 he gives daytime highs of probably 1 to 5 degrees. Ristic, from November 10 exactly, predicts 12 to 16. Those are two different pictures of the same period, and worth keeping in mind when you plan a week ahead. Cubrilo himself noted that his data are the result of interpreting numerical models, and that for official information you should follow the state forecasting services.

They agree that the first part of the month brings a wintry version of the weather. For November 3, Cubrilo sees the snow line at about 800 meters and the first serious snow cover above about 1,000 meters, with daytime highs of 4 to 10 degrees. For the second half of the month he is more optimistic than Ristic:

The second half of November could bring noticeably warmer weather, with strong zonal flow.

Ristic, for his part, predicts warmer weather from November 10 and sees renewed cooling toward the end of the month.

What does the Republic Hydrometeorological Service say for today?

The Republic Hydrometeorological Service (RHMZ) forecasts cloudy and cold weather today, with occasional rain. More precipitation is expected in southeastern and eastern Serbia. The daytime temperature is 6 to 8 degrees, and above 1,500 meters it snows.

Morning readings show minus 1 on Kopaonik, 0 on Zlatibor, 2 degrees at Crni Vrh and in Sjenica, and 7 each in Belgrade, Nis, Kragujevac and Krusevac. The service’s website shows no meteorological warnings. Only a hydrological one is active, about low water levels on the Danube, the Sava and the Tisza at Titel, and it expires on November 1 at 9:33.

A monthly forecast is only an estimate, so the smartest move is to check again over the next two weeks as each of these dates approaches.