Vucic: Slim Chance EU Opens Cluster 3 in July
The president says he will wait a few more days as eight EU members block the negotiating cluster over Serbia's refusal to sanction Russia and rule-of-law concerns.
- The European Commission has recommended that the EU Council open Cluster 3 in July, judging that Serbia has met the key steps.
- Eight countries oppose the move: the Netherlands, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Sweden and the three Baltic states.
- The main reasons are rule of law and misalignment with EU foreign policy, above all Serbia's refusal to sanction Russia.
- Vucic says the chances are slim and that he will wait a few more days to see whether the cluster is opened.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic has said the chances are slim that the European Union will open Cluster 3 in the accession talks during July, even though the European Commission has already recommended the step to the EU Council. Vucic said he would wait a few more days before drawing a firm conclusion about where the process is heading.
The Commission, judging that Belgrade had met the key steps, sent the Council a recommendation to open this negotiating chapter. The decision, however, rests with the member states rather than the Commission, and that is exactly where the process has stalled. Eight countries oppose the opening: the Netherlands, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Sweden and the three Baltic states. Progress requires the consent of all, so even a single vote against blocks the entire cluster.
Why are eight members holding it up?
The reasons these countries cite center on two points. The first is rule of law, an area where some members believe Serbia has not moved far enough. The second, described in diplomatic circles as the substantive one, is misalignment with the Union’s common foreign and security policy, which at this moment means the refusal to impose sanctions on Russia.
Vucic said openly what Brussels has long signaled between the lines: the condition for further negotiating progress is that Serbia join the European sanctions regime against Moscow. Belgrade has not changed that position, invoking its own economic and energy interests and the fact that it has never imposed sanctions on any country.
The positions of the eight members are not identical. Bulgaria and Croatia fold bilateral disputes with Belgrade into their objections, while the Baltic states and Sweden stress foreign-policy alignment. The result is the same: without consensus, the Commission’s recommendation stays on paper.
Would sanctions even open the door?
Vucic went a step further, arguing that Serbia would not enter the EU even if it did impose sanctions, because, as he put it, the question of the status of Kosovo and Metohija would immediately arise. With that, the president is telling the domestic public that he does not see sanctions as a key that solves everything, but as a concession that would only be followed by new conditions.
That argument also serves as an internal political message. The opposition has argued for years that the government simulates the European path without real progress, while the government counters that the conditions keep shifting and that Brussels keeps raising the bar. Between those two readings sits the fact that the cluster is technically ready but politically frozen.
The coming days will show whether room for compromise emerges among the eight blocking countries or whether Cluster 3 stays closed until autumn. Vucic says he is waiting. The question is whether he is waiting for movement in Brussels or for a reason to say there is none. What do you think, is Serbia closer to opening the cluster or to a new deadlock?
