Vance confident Israel will join the Iran deal later

For Serbia, which has spent years balancing open channels to Washington against economic ties across the Middle East, any easing of tension in the Persian Gulf means steadier energy prices and a more predictable trade route toward Asia. That is why the vice president’s remarks read as more than a piece of internal American politics.

US Vice President JD Vance told CBS News that he is confident Israel, reluctant for now, will join the agreement Washington is building with Tehran in time. Vance framed the assessment carefully, leaving room for Jerusalem’s final decision to come only once the talks have moved well past their opening phase. The nuance matters, because it reveals that the American side is currently working along two tracks: one leading to Iran, the other toward reassuring allies that the deal will not compromise their security.

“We feel fairly confident that the Israelis will be brought into this agreement once we get a little further down the road,” Vance said, a phrasing that acknowledges Israeli hesitation while signaling that Washington has not given up on overcoming it. The vice president added that nuclear inspectors will absolutely return to Iran under the terms of the deal, answering the central verification question that has been a sticking point in every conversation about the Iranian program for years.

As things stand, the framework provides for sixty days of nuclear negotiations, a window in which the technical detail and the scope of monitoring would be settled. Trump and Vance, it was announced, virtually signed an agreement to end the blockade of Iranian ports, a move that could ease the shipping lanes through which a large share of the world’s oil passes. Vance said he might attend the signing ceremony, and the presence of President Trump was not ruled out, which would lend the whole process the weight of top-tier diplomacy.

Why is Israel holding back for now?

Jerusalem’s reticence will surprise no one who follows the transatlantic dynamic. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu openly admitted that he and President Trump do not always see things the same way, a rare instance of an Israeli premier publicly marking a difference with the White House. Behind that sentence sits a long-standing Israeli doctrine that the Iranian nuclear program must be given no room to breathe, not even under the watch of inspectors.

Washington, for its part, calculates that isolating Iran without dialogue would prolong instability rather than ease it. Vance’s assessment that Israel will be “brought in later” therefore reads as a calculated message: the White House is not seeking immediate consent, but keeping its ally inside the negotiating framework long enough for results to become tangible. If inspectors do return and the port blockade is lifted, it will be harder for the Israeli leadership to stand apart from a process that reshapes the regional balance.

What does the deal mean for the wider region?

The return of inspectors and the lifting of the naval blockade are not technical footnotes but signals that shape the behavior of the entire Gulf. Countries that have measured every move toward Tehran for years are watching closely to see whether Washington can genuinely reconcile Iranian concessions with Israeli fears. European diplomacy, which played a mediating role in earlier rounds of talks on the Iranian program, now watches from a distance, aware that the initiative has passed into American hands.

For Serbia and the region, the message is indirect but real. A calmer Middle East affects fuel prices, the security of corridors toward Asia, and the overall tone of relations among the major powers. Vance’s words are a promise for now, not Jerusalem’s signature, so it remains an open question whether sixty days of talks will be enough to turn mistrust into agreement. Do you believe Israel will ultimately accept the deal Washington is building with Tehran?