Donbas under pressure as Russia advances near Pokrovsk

While European capitals track every fresh wave of Ukrainian drone strikes against targets deep inside Russia, and pictures of smoke over refineries fill the front pages, the real change is unfolding where it is harder to measure: on the ground front in Donetsk Oblast. For Serbia, balancing between its European perspective and historic ties to Moscow, every shift along the front line reshapes the diplomatic calculus through which we read both the sanctions regime and the prospects for talks.

According to the Ukrainian General Staff, the Pokrovsk axis remains the hottest part of the entire front. This means dozens of Russian attacks a day, aimed at pushing through toward the settlements around a town that has been one of the main targets of the Russian offensive for months. Pokrovsk was not chosen by chance: it is a hub of roads and railways linking Ukrainian positions in the western part of Donetsk Oblast, so capturing or encircling it would change the logic of supply across a much wider area.

What is new is not the name of the town, but the direction of the pressure. Russian forces are advancing in the zone between Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka, two strongpoints that together anchor the centre of the Ukrainian defence in the region. Military analysts increasingly describe the Kramatorsk-Kostiantynivka belt as the main theatre of Russian offensive operations, a quiet but significant shift from earlier reporting focused almost entirely on Pokrovsk.

Why is the centre of gravity shifting toward Kostiantynivka?

Kostiantynivka and neighbouring Kramatorsk form the last major line of towns before the administrative borders of the oblast. Whoever controls that belt controls the approaches to what remains of Ukraine’s defensive depth in the Donbas. That is why every kilometre here costs more than in open country: the fighting plays out around villages, junctions and individual buildings rather than large territorial leaps.

On the Kostiantynivka axis itself, Ukrainian forces have, according to available assessments, repelled several attacks near Pleshchiivka, Ivanopillia and on the approaches to the town. This is the kind of war rarely seen on the front pages: no sweeping arrows across the map, just slow, grinding clashes where progress is measured in rows of houses. That is precisely why drone strikes on Moscow draw more attention, because they are more visible and easier to show, while the decisive battle is still being fought in the trenches.

What does the shift on the front mean for the wider war?

Assessments suggest that, despite relentless pressure, Ukrainian forces are still managing to hold their main positions. That is the essence of the current phase: the Russian side is advancing, but slowly and at a high cost, while the Ukrainian defence gives ground at certain points without the line collapsing. This tempo has direct consequences for every diplomatic channel, since neither side wants to come to the negotiating table looking as though it has lost the initiative.

For an observer in Belgrade, this is a reminder that the outcome of the war will not be decided in a single dramatic strike, but in the sum of these seemingly minor shifts. The front in Donetsk Oblast is slow, but it is not static, and that distinction shapes everything that follows: from European decisions on aid to the possible terms of a ceasefire.

Do you think the next major turning point in the war will come on the ground front in the Donbas or through the campaign of deep drone strikes?