Iran Declares Strait of Hormuz Closed, Brent Tops $111
Tehran accuses Washington of breaching this week's memorandum as Israel keeps striking southern Lebanon, while US Central Command insists shipping through the strait still flows.
- Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed on Saturday evening, accusing the United States of failing to honor the memorandum signed this week.
- About one-fifth of global oil consumption, close to 13 million barrels a day, passes through the strait.
- Brent crude jumped above $111 a barrel, its highest level since June 2022.
- US Central Command insists Iran does not control the strait and that traffic is still flowing.
For Serbia, which pays for every liter of imported oil at a price set on global exchanges, the news from Tehran is not a distant diplomatic episode but direct pressure on the pumps and on the budget. On Saturday evening Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, citing a violation of the memorandum of understanding signed only this week with the United States, and markets responded instantly: Brent broke past $111 a barrel, the highest since June 2022.
The Revolutionary Guard navy warned ships to stay away from the corridor through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil consumption passes, close to 13 million barrels a day. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei justified the decision by arguing that the other side had failed to meet its obligation to force Israel to halt its attacks on southern Lebanon, which Tehran treats as the first and decisive clause of the agreement.
Is the strait actually closed, or is this a message?
Washington rejects that reading. US Central Command stated that Iran does not control the Strait of Hormuz and that traffic is still flowing, backed by heightened naval surveillance. This is, then, a clash of two realities: one declared from Tehran and another measured on the water, where tankers are sailing for now. Past crises show that Iran can disrupt navigation but has never sustained a full blockade for long, since doing so would hit its own exports and its ties with China, its main buyer.
The backdrop is the Lebanese front. The Israeli military said Hezbollah fired more than 50 rockets overnight and that five Israeli soldiers had been killed in southern Lebanon over the past 48 hours. Hezbollah, for its part, says it is observing the ceasefire in force since Friday evening and accuses Israel of spreading false claims to justify continued strikes and sabotage the agreement. Between those two versions sits a memorandum meant to end a war, now wielded as leverage in an entirely different strait, a thousand kilometers away.
What a Hormuz closure means for the European market
The European picture is unfavorable, as the continent enters yet another cycle of supply uncertainty only a few years after the energy shock triggered by the war in Ukraine. Every ten-dollar jump in Brent spills over into fuel prices, transport costs and, indirectly, inflation, mechanisms that Serbian consumers feel with a delay of a few weeks. US Vice President Vance confirmed that talks in Switzerland are being led by envoys Witkoff and Kushner, with Washington trying to keep the dispute in a diplomatic channel before it crosses into naval confrontation.
For Belgrade, the question is one of caution: replenishing commodity reserves, watching futures contracts and balancing diplomatically between partners suddenly on opposite sides of one narrow sea. Serbia has no fleet in the Gulf, but it has bills paid in dollars and a December budget that counts on predictable energy prices.
If Tehran is using the strait as a bargaining chip rather than a genuine blockade, how long will markets keep believing Washington’s assurance that tankers are still sailing, before the uncertainty itself becomes costlier than any closure?
