Iran Strikes Two Tankers, Trump Imposes Hormuz Toll

The price of oil on world markets dictates what drivers across the Balkans see at the pump and what importers pay for every shipment of crude, which is why an attack on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is not a distant Middle Eastern story but a direct pressure on household budgets from Belgrade to Brussels. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard struck two supertankers belonging to the United Arab Emirates with cruise missiles in Omani waters, an attack that killed one crew member, an Indian national, and wounded eight sailors. It was carried out in the most sensitive trade corridor in the world, the channel through which roughly one fifth of global oil supply passes.

The market reaction was immediate. Brent for September delivery broke past $86 a barrel, the highest level in a month, while US WTI trades near $80. The previous day brought a jump of nearly 9 percent, one of the sharpest daily gains of the year. Behind the numbers lies a simple geopolitical reality: when goods physically cannot pass, price stops reflecting supply and demand and begins to measure fear.

Why Hormuz Holds the World Economy by the Throat

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow maritime gate between Iran and Oman through which dozens of tankers pass each day toward Asia and Europe. According to vessel-movement data, the number of transits dropped 52 percent between July 10 and July 12 compared with the previous week, meaning traffic was effectively cut in half in just two days. Shipping firms that normally cover war risk through insurance now prefer to wait or take longer routes, and every day of stoppage adds costs that eventually spill into the retail price of fuel.

President Donald Trump announced that Washington would charge a 20 percent toll on all cargo transiting the strait and increase pressure on Iranian ports, saying the United States was protecting one of the most economically important corridors in the world. Such a measure would be a precedent in modern maritime trade and would raise the question of who actually holds the right to charge for passage through international waters, moving the conflict from the military plane onto the ground of international law and transatlantic responsibility.

For the European Union, still building its energy resilience after the previous wave of price increases, this is a test of how quickly Brussels can respond through joint reserves and a diplomatic channel to the Gulf. Serbia, a country on a European path and without domestic crude production on a scale that would shield it, feels that shock with a delay of several weeks, but it feels it for certain.

Could the Price Climb to $100?

Analysts warn that a rise to $100 a barrel is realistic if it turns out there is a genuine risk of a physical shortage, rather than merely temporary fear. The key difference is between a stoppage lasting days and a blockade that would last for weeks; the first the market can absorb from reserves, the second would set off a chain of price increases from transport to food. The Gulf has for decades been the point where the world economy is most easily called into question, and each new strike confirms how little room there is for error.

For now it is certain that two tankers were hit, that a man lost his life, and that a measure has been announced which could permanently change the rules of passage through one of the most important corridors on the planet. How much are you willing to pay for a liter of fuel before a distant conflict in the Gulf becomes a line item in every household budget?