Storm Francisco nears typhoon strength, warning for Luzon

For a Serbian audience tracking its own summer storms and the alerts issued by the national weather service, weather drama on the other side of the world can feel remote. Yet it is a useful reminder of how differently early-warning systems work from one region to another. Where a Serbian alert means hail and afternoon downpours, the same logic in the Philippines sets off an entire chain of evacuations, because the threat there is measured in days and thousands of kilometers. The Philippine meteorological agency PAGASA said that tropical storm Francisco, which carries the international name Mekkhala, is strengthening and could grow into a typhoon.

According to the agency, the storm has reached maximum sustained winds of about 110 kilometers per hour, placing it right at the threshold of typhoon category. PAGASA flagged a possible upgrade as early as Sunday, with peak intensity expected on June 22 or 23. For the north of Luzon, the most populous and economically important part of the archipelago, a possible Signal No. 1 warning has been flagged. It is the lowest level on the country’s five-step scale, signaling residents to prepare for strong wind and heavy rain in the days ahead.

Why is another Philippine storm worth watching?

Francisco is not an isolated event but the sixth tropical cyclone to enter the Philippine area of responsibility this year, and the second in June alone. That frequency is no accident. The Philippines sit in the western Pacific, the most active basin for tropical cyclone formation in the world, through which dozens of systems pass each year, with around twenty entering the national monitoring zone. As a result, the country has built one of the most developed warning systems in the region, with graded signals that direct local authorities to take specific measures in advance.

Signal No. 1, now under consideration for northern Luzon, is the mildest level and does not imply an immediate threat to life, but it triggers preparation. It calls for monitoring official bulletins, securing movable property, and caution in coastal and mountainous areas where landslides and flash floods are the most common consequences. Only higher signals, from No. 3 upward, bring class suspensions, halts to maritime traffic, and organized evacuations. That is precisely why an early flag matters: it gives local governments time to act before the storm arrives.

Where the storm is heading and what to expect

The track PAGASA has sketched carries Francisco across the northern part of the archipelago, with the chance that the system strengthens further over the warm waters of the Philippine Sea before it begins to weaken. According to the agency’s projection, the storm could leave the Philippine area of responsibility around June 26, meaning the coming week in the north of the country would be marked by stronger wind, waves, and rain.

It should be kept in mind that forecasting a tropical cyclone’s track is not an exact science, and that even a small shift toward land or out to sea significantly affects how much rain falls over inhabited areas. Meteorologists therefore avoid stating in advance exactly where the strongest impact will be, urging residents to follow official bulletins, which are updated every few hours. For now, all that is clear is that Francisco is strengthening and that the region is entering several restless days.

While European weather services worry this summer about heat waves and droughts, on the other side of the world the same profession is counting down the hours to a possible typhoon. How ready, do you think, are Europe’s warning systems for the kind of weather extremes that have long been routine in Asia?