Houthis blockade Saudi Arabia as tankers burn in Hormuz

For Serbia, a landlocked country almost entirely dependent on imported oil, what is unfolding tonight in two narrow sea passages on the other side of the world is not distant news but a bill arriving at the pump. The Gulf crisis has entered a new and more dangerous phase: Yemen’s Houthis have declared a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea and effectively closed the Bab al-Mandeb strait, forcing two Asia-bound oil tankers to turn back, while a ship burns after being attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil flows.

For the first time since the conflict began, both of the planet’s main oil chokepoints are under threat at once. British and American authorities confirmed the attack and fire aboard the tanker in Hormuz, and shipping companies are already rerouting traffic, a shift that lengthens voyages, drives up insurance costs, and squeezes the crude oil market that Serbian imports also rely on.

Two chokepoints under fire at once

Bab al-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz are not merely points on a map; they are the valves through which most of the oil bound for Europe and Asia passes. By declaring a blockade of Saudi ports, the Houthis have shut the southern gateway to the Red Sea, while the simultaneous escalation in the Persian Gulf strikes the northern passage. When both throats are threatened, shippers have no alternative route that does not add weeks of sailing around Africa, and every extra day at sea is written into the final price of fuel.

Washington has answered with force. The United States has carried out its eleventh consecutive wave of air strikes on Iran, hitting command centres, naval capabilities, and drone factories. Central Command says the aim is to reduce the threat that Iranian forces pose to merchant shipping, after what it says were attacks on more than thirty commercial vessels in Hormuz over the past three months.

Iran retaliated with drones on American bases in Kuwait, Jordan, and Bahrain. A third US soldier was killed in the attack on the Muwaffaq Salti base in Jordan, raising the total number of American service members killed since the conflict began on February 28 to eighteen. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said the war has cost $37.5 billion so far and requested an additional $67 billion to replenish missile stocks, a figure that shows neither side is planning a quick withdrawal.

What does a Gulf blockade mean for fuel prices in Serbia?

Serbia does not border the Gulf, but it borders the consequences. A supply shock spreads through the price of crude oil on world markets and from there, with some delay, into retail diesel and petrol prices at home. Costlier fuel means costlier freight, and costlier freight means fresh pressure on inflation at a moment when the domestic economy has only just steadied its price growth.

The geopolitical reality is that small economies such as Serbia’s have no leverage over events in Hormuz, but they do have an obligation to prepare for them, from fuel reserves to diversifying suppliers. European capitals are already weighing scenarios of a prolonged blockade, and every additional day in which tankers burn brings closer the moment when the global shock is felt at Serbian pumps too.

Has Serbia diversified its energy sources enough to withstand a prolonged blockade of the world’s two most important oil passages?