Bosnia Diesel Prices Could Hit Four Marks, Now at 3.50
Energy experts warn diesel in Bosnia and Herzegovina could top four convertible marks if oil reaches $110 to $120 a barrel, with prices now near 3.50 KM.
Fuel prices in Bosnia and Herzegovina are climbing again, and energy experts warn the increase could continue as long as the price of oil keeps rising on world markets. Diesel, according to that forecast, could cross the four convertible mark threshold per liter, even though the market saw lower prices only two to three months ago. Oil price movements typically spread to neighboring markets as well, so what happens at the pumps in Sarajevo and Banja Luka is worth watching for nearby markets too, including Serbia’s.
Energy expert Almir Becarevic from Sarajevo says prices at gas stations in Bosnia and Herzegovina have already corrected over the past two to three days. Diesel is currently selling for around 3.50 KM, while gasoline runs between 3.20 and 3.30 KM per liter. That puts the market back where it stood two to three months ago, before prices dropped.
If the price of a barrel of oil rises to $110 to $120, diesel could go above four KM.
Becarevic said, adding that further price movements will depend mainly on how much crude oil prices climb on the world market from here.
At the time he made that statement, the price of a barrel stood at around $97, with a continued upward trend. Becarevic ties that dynamic to the situation in the Middle East, which he says is growing more complicated by the day.
Nobody can guarantee what will happen with armed conflicts and how they develop further.
he warned, adding that the price of a barrel has been trending upward over the past few days and has already crept close to the $100 mark.
Alongside oil, Becarevic also points to the natural gas market. On the reference exchange in the Netherlands, he says, gas prices have nearly tripled compared to February of this year. That spike, he says, will feed through to every product in Europe that depends on natural gas, and part of that impact will spill over into the Bosnian market as well.
Djordje Savic, chairman of the Oil and Oil Derivatives Trade Group at the Chamber of Commerce of Republika Srpska (RS), fills in the numbers from that entity. According to his figures, diesel in Banja Luka currently costs between 3.37 and 3.46 KM per liter, while gasoline sells for 2.97 to 3.13 KM, with the range shifting from day to day.
As things stand now, we can expect prices to keep rising by around 10 to 15 fenings per liter, based on current input prices.
Savic said.
Becarevic notes, finally, that diesel is currently getting more expensive considerably faster than the price of a barrel of oil itself is rising, which suggests other costs besides the raw material are also feeding into the final price at the pump.
If the scenario of a barrel price at $110 to $120 does play out, drivers in Bosnia and Herzegovina could end up paying more than four marks for diesel, the highest level in several months. Whether that happens will depend largely on how long the uncertainty around the Middle East drags on and how quickly it passes from the oil and gas exchanges to the pumps across the region.
