United Russia Wins Record 355 Seats in the Duma

Russia’s Central Election Commission has released preliminary results for the State Duma election, the lower house of the Russian parliament, after 95.18% of ballots had been counted. According to commission chair Ella Pamfilova, the ruling United Russia party won 57.83% of the party list vote, securing a record 355 of 450 seats in parliament.

Voting ran from September 18 to 20, with all 450 Duma deputies up for election. It was Russia’s first parliamentary election since the start of the war against Ukraine.

How high turnout actually was

Sources disagree on turnout. Pamfilova called it a record, at 59.32%, a figure also cited by Meduza and the newspaper Kommersant, which described it as the highest turnout since 2003. Al Jazeera, citing the Central Election Commission, put Sunday evening turnout at under 57%.

The parties’ vote shares also differ depending on the source. Meduza, citing the CEC’s official figures, reported 57.83% for United Russia, 13.81% for the Communist Party, 8.98% for the LDPR, 7.96% for New People and 4.96% for A Just Russia. Al Jazeera, citing the state news agency TASS, gave slightly different numbers: 57.86%, 13.84%, 8.9%, 7.94% and 4.95%.

How the seats break down

Under Pamfilova’s projection, the new Duma would seat United Russia with 355 deputies, the Communist Party with 40, the LDPR with 25, New People with 20 and A Just Russia with four. A Just Russia barely cleared the five percent threshold, but Pamfilova said the party had a good chance of entering the Duma.

The picture looks similar in the 225 single mandate constituencies, where:

• United Russia candidates lead in 208 constituencies
• the Communist Party leads in five
• A Just Russia and independent candidates each lead in four
• the LDPR leads in two constituencies
• Rodina leads in one constituency

The result surpasses United Russia’s previous record from 2016, when the party won 343 seats. In the prior election, in 2021, United Russia held 326 seats, while the Communist Party, then the second strongest party, had 57.

Who was shut out of the race

The liberal party Yabloko, the only one that campaigned on an antiwar platform, ended up without a single seat in the single mandate constituencies. Russia’s Supreme Court removed Yabloko from the party list ballot in August, and its candidates in single mandate constituencies faced pressure from the authorities. Party leader Nikolai Rybakov demonstratively spoiled his own ballot, writing the party’s name on it along with the message “For peace.”

Newly elected deputies will include at least 86 veterans of the war in Ukraine, according to the Moscow Times. In parallel gubernatorial elections, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov was reelected, with an official 99.85% of the vote.

Voting also took place in the four Ukrainian regions Moscow annexed in 2022, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, as well as in Crimea, annexed in 2014. According to Al Jazeera, 3.6 million voters cast their ballots online.

Does the result raise questions for the Kremlin

NEST, a Berlin based think tank co founded by Kremlin critic Mikhail Khodorkovsky, warns that the result, while predictable, still carries uncomfortable signals for the authorities at a time of economic pressure inside the country.

The consequences of the war are increasingly being felt inside the country, and the accumulated worry and frustration could translate into votes for the systemic opposition parties that the Kremlin kept on the ballot.

The assessment comes from NEST’s analysis, cited by Al Jazeera. It refers to the Communist Party and parties like New People, which side with United Russia in the vast majority of parliamentary votes, but whose support, according to NEST, in many cases reflects quiet voter protest rather than a genuine challenge to President Vladimir Putin.

What comes next

The Central Election Commission has said it will publish final, official results at the earliest on Friday, and both Al Jazeera and Kommersant report that an earlier release is not expected. Until then, vote counting and the procedures required by law continue.

Srpske Novine also tracked the third day of voting, when turnout stood at 44.75%. The final seat count and the officially confirmed turnout will not be known until after Friday.