Bitcoin at 77,000 dollars: why the 2024 halving did not deliver the expected rally
Six months after the Bitcoin halving, the price is around 77,000 dollars instead of the expected jump above 150,000, meaning the pattern from previous cycles is not repeating.
Is Bitcoin in May 2026 a disappointment or a new pattern we do not yet understand? The price is currently around 77,000 dollars (about 9 million dinars per BTC), well short of the 150,000 forecasts that accompanied the April 2024 halving. In practice, the “post-halving pump” that defined the 2012, 2016 and 2020 cycles has not happened.
This is not a pessimistic piece but an attempt to explain what has changed, because many people in Serbia have entered crypto in the past year precisely on expectations history has not confirmed.
What is the halving and why it used to matter
A halving is an event every four years when the Bitcoin mining reward is cut in half. A lower inflow of new bitcoins, with the same or greater demand, drives the price higher. This pattern held three times. In 2012-2013, the price rose from 12 to 1,100 dollars. In 2016-2017, from 650 to 19,700. In 2020-2021, from 8,500 to 69,000.
The logic was statistically compelling. Then came the 2024 halving, and the cycle moved differently.
Why this cycle is not following the historical pattern
Several factors are acting at the same time. First, Bitcoin ETFs approved in January 2024 changed the structure of the market. Institutional players, pension funds and traditional investment houses now hold a significant share of trading. They behave differently from the individual investors who drove earlier cycles.
Second, the macroeconomic context. Inflation in the US and Europe is higher than in 2020, while Federal Reserve and European Central Bank policy rates remain above the historical average. High rates make risk assets less attractive.
Third, geopolitical tensions. US-Iran tensions, a wave of capital outflows from ETFs, liquidations of long positions, all of this is keeping the price under pressure.
Concrete numbers for the May position
| Moment | BTC price (USD) | BTC price (RSD approx.) |
|---|---|---|
| Halving April 2024 | 64,000 | 7.5 million |
| Peak November 2024 | 108,000 | 12.6 million |
| May 2026 (now) | 77,000 | 9 million |
| Forecasts for end-2026 | 100,000 to 180,000 | 11.7 to 21.1 million |
Different analytical shops give different forecasts. CoinDCX sees BTC above 80,000 by year-end; FXEmpire pegs 150,000 if institutions step up buying; Seeking Alpha mentions the risk of a 78 percent drop in the third year after the halving, which in their projection would mean a fall below 30,000 dollars.
What this means for the Serbian investor
First, crypto is legal in Serbia but with a 15 percent capital gains tax. Every transaction is reported in the tax return. This is often forgotten, and more and more people have been receiving notices from the Tax Administration since late 2025.
Second, if you plan to invest, halving theory is no longer a safe guide. The reality is that BTC now depends as much on macro factors, ETF flows and regulation as on its technical nature.
Third, dollar cost averaging (a fixed monthly investment) is a strategy that makes more sense in this uncertainty than trying to time the market. If you invest 100 euros (about 11,700 dinars) a month, your average price smooths out across cycles.
Local Serbian scene
Crypto trading in Serbia mostly happens via Bit.team, ECD (the English Chamber for Digital Assets through domestic representatives) and international platforms accepting Serbian cards (Binance, Kraken). The National Bank of Serbia has its own digital assets regulation that is in practice light-touch, but alignment with EU MiCA is being prepared.
Local crypto-to-cash exchange offices exist in Belgrade, with rates typically 2 to 5 percent off international exchanges.
Our recommendation
Bitcoin in May 2026 is neither a catastrophe nor a safe upward bet. Above all, it is a test for theses that have dominated the market for years. If you are thinking of entering, start with a small amount you can accept to lose, brace for volatility, and do not base the decision on halving history alone.
The next data point that will move the price is the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision in June, where the United States is expected to cut its main rate for the first time in 2026.
